Ana Ivanovic - BNP Paribas Open

Ivanovic vs. Jankovic:  Seeking her second straight Premier Mandatory quarterfinal, Ana eyes a tenth confrontation with her compatriot and fellow Indian Wells champion.  The Serbian stars share parallel career trajectories, having emerged almost simultaneously, crested during the same season, and receded swiftly from the circle of contenders within months of completing their meteoric rise.  While Ana rose to a higher pinnacle of accomplishments, she tumbled much more precipitously thereafter.  Victorious in six of her first seven meetings with Jankovic, Ivanovic has lost their last two encounters during a slump from which she finally emerged in the second half of 2010 with a pair of titles.  Outside their memorable meeting in a Roland Garros semifinal three years ago, both Serbs have struggled to showcase their finest tennis when they meet, perhaps because they hold so few secrets from each other.  Last year in Madrid, they contested an unsightly, break-strewn match that illustrated their uneasiness in these internecine skirmishes.

After an injury-blighted start to her 2011 campaign, Ivanovic may have restored a measure of confidence with two crisp victories in the desert where she lifted the trophy in 2008 and reached the final a year later.  Escaping from a swoon of her own that extended from last Wimbledon through the Australian Open, Jankovic has crept back into contention (or at least its environs) with three successive tournaments in which she has reached the semifinals or better.  She thus will enter this encounter with greater momentum than her compatriot, a potentially decisive factor.  On the other hand, Ana defeated her compatriot at this tournament three years ago, when both Serbs ranked in the top five.  Although Ivanovic’s best surpasses Jankovic’s best, one expects to see a level less than the best from both players on Monday.

Bartoli vs. Clijsters:  Sweeping all three of her encounters with the Frenchwoman, the four-time Slam champion ignited her second career by dispatching Bartoli in Cincinnati.  Somewhat greater drama developed when they met in New York a few weeks later, as the eventual US Open titlist rallied from a one-set deficit in emphatic fashion.  In theory, Clijsters should cruise smoothly into the quarterfinals of an event that she has won more often than any player remaining in the draw.  Compared to her double-fisted foe, the Belgian moves more smoothly, penetrates the court more consistently with her groundstrokes, and serves more effectively.  But warning bells rang when Kim conceded 13 double faults during her three-set win over Errani, suffering from shoulder pain that she revealed afterwards.  Since Clijsters noted that her discomfort increases when she reaches for high forehands, Bartoli should consider interweaving some high-bouncing groundstrokes with her trademark flat lasers.  Although one struggles to imagine her winning two sets from a healthy Clijsters on a slow hard court, the Frenchwoman reached the Doha semifinal and extended that momentum to a commanding victory over Petkovic here.

Wozniacki vs. Kleybanova:  Author of a sensational upset on this court a year ago, the Russian seeks to rekindle the magic of that victory over Clijsters.  While she won just nine games in the four previous sets that she has contested with Wozniacki, they have met only on clay and grass rather than on the surface that best suits both of their games.  Curiously, both players claimed their first career victories over opponents who previously had dominated them, Martinez Sanchez and Pennetta; Kleybanova’s victory looked especially impressive considering her crushing defeat to the Italian last month.  In the daytime conditions, Wozniacki’s high-percentage style should trump the Russian’s net-brushing groundstrokes, which rely upon more precise timing.  Unless Kleybanova can seize command of points with her imposing first serve, the Dane’s counterpunching should gradually wear down her challenger on this especially slow surface.   Instead of waging war from the baseline, Alisa should consider closing points with her notable net skills, but the penetrating groundstrokes of Wozniacki probably will keep her pinned behind the baseline.  Watching the Dane, one learns that depth can become as effective a weapon as angle construction.

Maria Sharapova - BNP Paribas Open

Safina vs. Sharapova:  On the bright side, the two-time Roland Garros finalist scored her first victory over a top-10 opponent since her back injury, a moment that will have revitalized her confidence barely a month after she contemplated retirement.  On the less bright side, she donated 16 double faults during that match and profited immensely from Stosur’s abject incompetence on even the most routine groundstrokes.  Although her head-to-head with Sharapova stands level at three wins apiece, they have not met on a hard court since Maria’s two comprehensive triumphs in 2005-06.  One can glean little from such distant history, especially because their two most memorable encounters unfolded at Roland Garros, where Safina erased imposing deficits on both occasions to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.  Surely eager to fasten her own jaws around her compatriot, Sharapova must beware of sinking to the level of her opponent if Dinara struggles again with her serve.  A spasmodic, unpredictable rhythm across the net could spell trouble for the 2006 champion, who has struggled with her own timing since returning from shoulder surgery.  Bedeviled for much of two sets by Medina Garrigues in her opener, Sharapova slipped gratefully into her preferred brand of tennis against Rezai.  More imposing than Safina are the memories of those earlier losses to her, so Maria may find the mental challenge more daunting than any physical test that she confronts on Monday.

Schiavone vs. Peer:  Maneuvered to the edge of the precipice by a relentless Pavlyuchenkova, the Israeli saved multiple match points deep in the third set and later erased break points that would have forced a decisive tiebreak.  This narrative diverged from a few of Peer’s matches early this year, in which she squandered opportunities to deliver the coup de grace before finding herself on the wrong side of a stirring comeback.  Once again dominant in the Middle East, she scored victories over Wickmayer and Kuznetsova that presaged her performance in the California desert, where she reached the quarterfinals in 2007.  Although Peer has not faced Schiavone since the latter’s Roland Garros heroics, she won all three of their hard-court meetings and three of their four tiebreaks.  The fifth seed has looked sharper than expected at a tournament where she never has reached the elite eight, comfortably dismissing a revitalized Cornet.  In this clash between resilient competitors, one expects epic rallies, multiple breaks, and plenty of feisty emotion from both sides of the net.  If Peer can pin Schiavone behind the baseline, she could continue her success against the Italian by neutralizing the latter’s multifaceted forecourt weapons.  Nevertheless, she lacks the offensive artillery to take time away from the Roland Garros champion as she devises her clever combinations.

Wickmayer vs. Cibulkova:  Watching them battle at Stanford last year, we noticed that the nine inches separating them in height paralleled the gulf between their relative ball-striking ability.  With the arguable exception of Cibulkova’s inside-out forehand, the Belgian hammered every shot more vigorously than her diminutive opponent.  Despite the mismatch on that afternoon, the Slovak has won her other two clashes with Wickmayer while feeding her a pair of bagels.  Both women scored impressive upsets in the previous round, of which Cibulkova’s epic win over Zvonareva (justly) garnered more acclaim because of her opponent’s pedigree.  From Wickmayer’s perspective, though, the triumph over US Open nemesis Kanepi may have provided just as substantial an emotional boost.  Dominating the Estonian through the first set and a half in New York, Yanina let the match slip away after a disappointing second-set tiebreak; the collapse poisoned the rest of her 2010 campaign.  This time, Wickmayer rallied from a one-set deficit and watched Kanepi unravel with grim satisfaction.  A quarterfinalist in Miami last year, the Belgian could equal or even surpass that feat here if she can quell the charging Cibulkova, who has maximized her potential under the guidance of Zeljko Krajan.  Who can build upon Sunday’s achievements?

Petrova vs. Peng:  Previously felled by Petrova at her home tournament in Beijing, the Chinese star has enjoyed the brightest season of her career thus far with wins over Kuznetsova, Jankovic, Li, and nearly Radwanska.  After that succession of triumphs, she should approach her former conqueror with ample self-belief.  Erratic early in her clash with American wildcard Christina McHale, Petrova grimaced, carved the air with her racket, and barked at herself even when the tide turned early in the second set.  Such negative body language jarred with her generally crisp performance when she put her racket to its more familiar function, connecting with some startling winners off both groundstrokes against an opponent who played well above her usual level.  Tested but ultimately unscathed in each of her first two matches, Petrova faces an opponent who survived a pair of three-setters herself and also has rallied from a one-set deficit here.  Whereas the Russian clearly holds the edge in power, the Chinese star holds the emotional advantage and rarely signals discomfiture to her opponent.  In order for that dimension to become relevant, however, the match must stay somewhat close.  Otherwise, Petrova will feel little of the pressure that has undermined her potential throughout her career.

Victoria Azarenka - BNP Paribas Open

Radwanska vs. Azarenka:  On the distant battlefield of Court 7, this match between two top-10 talents should surpass its humble setting.  Dominating their head-to-head record after losing their first meeting in 2006, Azarenka holds the keys to victory but often has let them dangle too loosely from her finger in similar situations before.  Despite their high first-serve percentages, neither player wins many free points with her delivery, so one envisions repeated breaks and a series of extended service games.   Faced with a stern test of her fragile patience, Azarenka must maneuver herself into position to unleash the winning blow rather than pulling the trigger with her trademark impetuosity.  On her side of the net, Radwanska will seek to feed the Belarussian a variety of paces, spins, and perhaps heights; in the past, Vika has struggled with slow, high-bouncing groundstrokes.  While the eighth seed clearly has the mightier weapons and greater potential to win majors, the ninth seed has established herself as one of the WTA’s most consistent competitors.  Currently mired in the longest title drought among top-10 players, the Pole must find a way to more regularly solve fallible firecrackers like Azarenka in order to contend for the elite tournaments.  These ultra-slow hard courts offer the best possible surface (other than clay) for the 2010 semifinalist to crack the code.

 

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