Roger Federer - 2011 US Open - Day 4

Federer vs. Cilic:  Untroubled through his first six sets of the fortnight, Federer now faces an opponent with an equally unblemished record through two rounds.  Whereas the third seed cruised past unheralded foes, though, Cilic dealt heavy blows to the hopes of promising youngsters Harrison and Tomic, either of whom would have seemed a more plausible challenger to Federer at this stage.  But the Croat has struck his inside-out forehand with devastating effect this week, and that weapon will prove vital in chipping away at the Swiss legend’s one-handed backhand.  Unable to seriously threaten Federer in their two previous meetings, Cilic has found his imposing serve neutralized by the former’s blocked returns.  Loath to finish points in the forecourt, this firmly rooted baseliner will find the initiative gradually wrested away from him as the world #3 exploits his ungainly movement.  Nevertheless, Federer has a mixed record against ATP sluggers in recent months, dominating Del Potro while falling twice to Tsonga and once to Berdych.  While Cilic surely cannot outlast him in a best-of-five format, he should force the five-time champion to raise his focus a notch or two if he wants to advance in straight sets.

Azarenka vs. Serena:  Dropping just three games in four sets so far, Serena has yet to encounter someone worthy of her steel.  In the most fascinating match of the middle weekend, Azarenka aims to prove her mettle as she did against the American in consecutive Australian Opens.  At both the 2009 and 2010 Melbourne tournament, the Belarussian pounded herself to a one-set lead by pinning Serena behind the baseline rather than allowing her to step inside the court.  On the latter of those occasions, Vika came within six points of a routine straight-sets victory before Serena roared back from the jaws of defeat.  Only once has Azarenka conquered the American, in fact, at a 2009 Miami final in which the latter’s injuries clearly undermined her.  Like Sharapova, the Belarussian has few options with which to solve Serena at her best, for no WTA contender possesses such raw athleticism that enables her to strike penetrating blows on the run and cover the court both vertically and laterally.  Solid if not spectacular when avenging her 2011 loss to Dulko, Azarenka must protect her weak second serve by seeking a high first-serve percentage.  When they met in Toronto this summer, Serena consistently targeted her opponent’s more reliable wing, the backhand—and still won in two relatively comfortable sets.  Even the best that the Belarussian could offer, therefore, still fell well short.  Not the sturdiest character on grand stages, the act of conquering a 13-time Slam champion on Arthur Ashe before a hostile crowd would represent her greatest achievement to date.

Ana Ivanovic - 2011 US Open - Day 2

Ivanovic vs. Stephens:  Enthusiastic about her first appearance in an Arthur Ashe night session, Ivanovic will need to improve upon her pedestrian opener in order to craft a happy ending.  Receiving a walkover from Cetkovska in the second round, the Serb has gained three crucial days of rest to refine her game and soothe her emotions.  A round after she battled through a hard-fought second set to upset Peer, Stephens may suffer from the same hangover that McHale seemed to experience against Kirilenko after she had overcome Bartoli.  The vocal crowd should stimulate the American, however, and the experience of playing on a similarly impressive stadium at Indian Wells once drew inspired tennis (albeit not a win) from her.  Still seeking to develop an explosive weapon, the home hope relied upon consistency and ball placement in her previous victory, as she did in her run to the San Diego quarterfinals.  A smooth mover with a talent for changing speeds, Stephens rattled the rhythm-oriented Peer by alternating lazy moonballs with flattened inside-out forehands.  Armed with far more formidable first-strike power, Ivanovic also relies upon a steady rhythm but possesses more options for ending points quickly than did Peer.  Although the Serb’s form ebbs and flows from one day to the next, she should decide her own fate in a match likely to produce statistical asymmetry in all categories.

Djokovic vs. Davydenko:  In his first match as the world #1, the new king of the ATP hill nearly lost his first set as a #1 to a player who spent years in the top 5 as a trendy underdog and a fascinating player to watch.  Known for his relentlessly vicious, flat groundstrokes and bursts of whimsicality, Davydenko has faded from the scene this season but proved again in Montreal that his ball-striking skills can trouble the most prestigious opponents.  If Djokovic enters this match complacent or unfocused, as he did then, beware of a potentially protracted encounter until he finds his range and starts punishing the Russian’s fallible serve (seemingly a national flaw).  At the Rogers Cup, his sparkling return game broke Davydenko seven straight times, while his first two opponents manage to hold serve exactly once in five sets against the top seed.  Considering Kolya’s own brilliance on the return, we could witness a WTA-like match where breaks set the tone rather than holds and when the serve wins relatively few quick points.  The fast surface in New York should soften Davydenko’s post-surgery inconsistency, allowing him to end rallies without creating as many audacious angles.  In a five-set victory over Dodig, moreover, he demonstrated the physical and mental endurance that often had eluded him this year.  Like Serena, Djokovic will benefit from the opportunity to play an opponent of this quality, which will prepare him for the increasingly arduous tests ahead.

Berdych vs. Tipsarevic:  Upon Djokovic’s ascent to #1, his compatriot proclaimed a belief that he could reach the top 10.  Perhaps in agreement with that assessment is the ninth seed, who has lost all three of their meetings and succumbed routinely to the Serb in Montreal this summer.  This head-to-head record puzzles in view of the superior weapons that Berdych possesses on virtually every shot, but Tipsarevic’s superior persistence has reaped rewards against the less determined Czech.  Often at his best against the best, the Serbian eccentric twice has defeated Roddick at majors (including last year’s Open) and came excruciatingly close to upsetting Federer at the 2008 Australian Open.  A semifinalist in Montreal, he confronts a Cincinnati semifinalist who has looked progressively more convincing since the clay season.  Before retiring against Djokovic in Cincinnati, Berdych delivered a comprehensive performance against Federer that stirred memories of his 2010 triumphs against the Swiss, Djokovic, and others.  In order to halt his slide down the rankings, though, he needs to more regularly win the matches that he should win:  matches like these.

Jankovic vs. Pavlyuchenkova:  Ranked just four slots apart, the Serb and the Russian should engage in another tense encounter similar to their three-set final in Monterrey.  Illustrating a trend in her performances this year, Jankovic cruised through the first set in the encounter before sagging in the second and failing to recover.  Hampered by a back injury in the second round against Dokic, the former #1 has earned a reputation of courageously battling through such ailments to victory.  Jankovic sometimes becomes most dangerous when beleaguered by such drama-creating circumstances, so one wouldn’t discount the possibility of a quarterfinal appearance.  Turning 20 in July, Pavlyuchenkova played over 250 matches as a teenager and has encountered injuries with disquieting frequency herself.  As Zvonareva learned the hard way at Roland Garros, her groundstrokes can hammer through counterpunchers on any surface.  Less impressive is a serve that conceded more than 50 double faults during a three-match stretch in Baku.  Long fallible on serve herself, Jankovic will struggle even more with that stroke if her back continues to trouble her.  We anticipate swarms of service breaks and few trips to the net except for the occasional swinging volley.

Anderson vs. Fish:  Gifted a pair of error-prone opponents in his first two matches, the top-ranked American man never needed to demonstrate the improvements in fitness, versatility, and court sense that have spurred his rise.  A towering South African who defeated Murray in Montreal, Anderson should earn sufficient free points with his serve to stay within range and subject Fish to pressure.  The US Open Series champion wobbled through several complicated service games this week, mostly when his first-serve percentage dipped or his mind wandered.  Still searching for the balance between caution and aggression, Fish can grow tentative in rallies even on these fast courts that suit his game.  In order to avoid an edgy encounter on Saturday, the world #8 will want to assert himself earlier in rallies while punishing his opponent’s second serve.  A respectable mover considering his height, Anderson falters when forced to reverse direction, so Fish could exploit his opponent’s awkward footwork.  Will either or both of them enliven their baseline style with an occasional serve-volley gambit?

Tsonga vs. Verdasco:  Only once have this flamboyant pair of shot-makers met, at the 2009 Australian Open when Verdasco recorded the most spectacular performance of his career.  Less flamboyant than frustrating in 2011, he has sunk to the fringes of the top 20 while losing six opening-round encounters.  In Cincinnati, however, Verdasco extended an ailing Nadal deep into a third-set tiebreak, an accomplishment that may have infused him with optimism.  On the other hand, his tennis rarely dazzled during a match notable largely for ineptitude, squandered opportunities, and mental frailty.  Far superior this summer, Tsonga blazed to consecutive semifinals at Wimbledon and the Rogers Cup behind memorable victories over Federer.  The Frenchman finally has enjoyed an extended span of health that has allowed him to consolidate his momentum, although a dubious retirement in Montreal  preceded a dismal loss in Cincinnati.  Whereas Verdasco suffers from a fatalistic streak that almost expects failure, Tsonga has embraced a carefree, optimistic attitude to a sport that he visibly relishes.  Both of these mentalities can lead their owners on circuitous routes to victory, and this collision should prove no exception.

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