Na Li - WTA Championships - Istanbul 2011 - Day Two

Li (1-1) vs. Stosur (1-1):  What a difference a day made for these two women. Less than 24 hours after they opened their week with solid victories over Sharapova, Azarenka thrashed the Roland Garros and US Open champions by identical 6-2, 6-2 scores.  Contributing to their swift transformation from predators to prey, Li and Stosur donated far more unforced errors to their opponent’s cause in their second matches, especially from the forehands on which both rely.  Nevertheless, the relative levels of performance attained by the injured, rusty Sharapova and the crisp, confident Azarenka also played significant roles in the whiplash-inducing turn of events.  Initially optimistic and then perhaps pessimistic, the two first-time Slam champions of 2011 should approach their collision through a realistic lens.  Simply put, the winner of this match earns a trip to a semifinal with the White Group winner (most likely Kvitova), while the loser earns a trip to their vacation destination of choice.  Since the year-end championships so often rest in the hands of computers and calculators, we find it refreshing to have a berth decided by a virtual quarterfinal or a single-elimination match.

From a glance at their previous meetings, the conclusion seems foregone.  In five matches on hard courts, carpet, and clay, Li has won one total set from her fellow breakthrough artist.  Only once has Li won more than six games in a match from Stosur, but that one occasion came in their most recent meeting in Cincinnati, which unwound through three tangled, competitive sets and may hint at a potential shift in the balance of power following two routine encounters earlier in 2011.  At the core of the Australian’s dominance lies her much superior serve, which has trumped the Chinese star’s often devastating return.  While Stosur’s serve will present the single most potent weapon on the court, she also owns the second most potent weapon in her forehand, a shot that will win most of their forehand-to-forehand rallies.  As opponents typically have attempted before, Li will seek to orient the rallies around their two-handed backhands, where she holds a distinct advantage despite her foe’s improvements in that area.  If the match evolves into a rigidly serve-oriented contest with short points and few breaks, she will have few opportunities to crack the Stosur conundrum.  By contrast, Li may prevail if she can engage in a more fluid, varied contest that rewards her more balanced style.  Stosur broke through an 0-for-career drought against one opponent this week, extended an 0-for-career drought against another, and now must seek to prevent an opponent from snapping an 0-for-career drought against her.

Kvitova (2-0) vs. Radwanska (1-1):  Unlike the previous match, this duel of dissonant styles matters much more to one combatant than to the other.  By ending Wozniacki’s season in emphatic fashion, the Wimbledon champion assured herself a semifinal berth in her first career appearance at this event.  Kvitova thus will approach this third and, for her, meaningless match with minimal motivation or intensity, a factor that may play directly into the hands of her opponent’s hopes.  After a set of her Thursday battle with Zvonareva, those hopes looked frail indeed as Radwanska could not blunt the Russian’s superior weight of shot.  Down to potentially the last point of her 2011 campaign on two different occasions, however, the champion of Tokyo and Beijing refused to submit meekly to a heavier hitter once again.  As she has so many times before, Radwanska survived by eliciting unforced errors until she thrived by striking the deft, exquisitely placed winners that compensate in grace for what they lack in pace.  From our sideline perspective, moreover, the dogged abandon with which she dashes along the baseline and retrieves laser after laser looks as intimidating as the lasers themselves.  In order to defeat Radwanska, opponents must dig into the trenches for a mentally draining encounter.

On the grass of Eastbourne this year, Kvitova dug into those trenches for a third-set-tiebreak victory that contributed to her impetus on the eve of her Wimbledon triumph.  With virtually nothing at stake here, she probably will prove unwilling to commit the degree of focus or determination required by a game so strongly reliant on precision.  As her wayward patches this year have showed, Kvitova can lose to almost any challenger when her mind wanders and carries her vicious offensive combinations with it.  Needing to win only one set for that first career semifinal berth, Radwanska should fancy her chances of exploiting an indifferent opponent.  One of her greatest tests may consist of recovering from the labyrinthine path that she traced on Thursday to reach this stage, but she has mastered such tasks convincingly throughout the second half of 2011.  And at least the Pole can determine her own fate, a situation much more enviable than the position of waiting, watching, and wondering in which Zvonareva finds herself.

Azarenka (2-0) vs. Bartoli (alt.): One has no doubt of advancing, while the other has no hope of doing so.  Combining those ingredients in this virtual dead rubber, neither player has any real incentive beyond the points and prize money available.  Before the tournament, Azarenka emphasized the allure of the latter, but one would counsel caution with a weekend of vital matches looming on the horizon.  For Bartoli, not for the first time an alternate event, the potential windfall may beckon more invitingly.  Nevertheless, she suffered a double bagel against Henin in a similar dead rubber at the year-end championships, so she may join Vika in the awkward exercise of playing a match while not really contesting it, all too familiar from Davis and Fed Cups past.  Istanbul fans should consider leaving after the previous match and preparing for a magnificent day of (singles and doubles) semifinals on Saturday.

Advertisements