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Andy Murray - 2011 US Open - Day 13

While the women converge on Tokyo, dual squadrons of men descend on Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur.  We focus upon the most intriguing figures in those minor tournaments, discussing what to expect from each of them in a week without the ominous shadows cast by the top three.

Murray (Bangkok):  Outside the copious sum of appearance money that likely spurred his participation, the world #4 has little more to gain than Nadal did in Bangkok last year.  If he considers the 500-level tournament in Dubai a practice event, Murray surely will saunter through his matches here as well.  Despite his distinct superiority to everyone else in the draw, a result other than a title wouldn’t shock us. R ecently, though, the Scot wished that he could play more tournaments where he “didn’t need to kill [him]self in every match” or play elite opponents, and his wish has come true here.

Monfils (Bangkok):  Withdrawing from Davis Cup with a recurrent knee injury, Monfils demonstrated his tendency towards drama with a US Open first-week classic—that he lost to a much lower-ranked albeit more experienced opponent.  A two-time finalist at the Paris Indoors, he has played his best tennis before European and especially French audiences, so one wonders whether the banal Bangkok arena will stimulate his competitive and creative vitality.  The indoor tournament should force him into more aggressive tactics, a shift from which his game in general would benefit.

Simon (Bangkok):  Two years after he won Bangkok for his first and so far only Asian title, the understated counterpuncher returns as the third seed.  In theory, the indoor surface should not suit his reactive style.  Yet surprisingly Simon not only has won three of his nine titles under a roof but also recorded his best Masters 1000 result in the last edition of the Madrid hard-court tournament.  During a stage of the season when more talented foes often waver in motivation, Simon represents the type of industrious, alert opportunist who will not hesitate to capitalize if others lose focus.

Tipsarevic (Kuala Lumpur):  With his first Slam quarterfinal, Djokovic’s understudy displayed talent long obscured by his eccentric personality.  Confident that he can reach the top 10, he faces a reasonably challenging pre-semifinal draw by the standards of these tournaments (probably Tomic and the Harrison-Davydenko winner).  Tipsarevic has shown that he can win matches that he should lose, considering his place in the ATP hierarchy; now he must prove that he can consistently win the matches that he should win.

Troicki (Kuala Lumpur):  If being the second-best player from a small country sounds like an unlucky fate, what about being the third-best player from that small country?  Having ceded his Serbian #2 status to Tipsarevic, Troicki’s sagging summer extended into the Davis Cup semifinal, where he dropped a winnable and potentially crucial rubber to Nalbandian.  But Viktor excelled during the fall last year, holding a match point against Nadal in Tokyo and winning his first career title in Moscow.

Almagro (Kuala Lumpur):  Among the top 5 in ATP matches won this year, this Spaniard gorged on the South American clay tournaments that resemble this week’s competitions in their meager significance.  The “ESP” by his name notwithstanding, Almagro can threaten at least as much on a hard court as on clay.  His serve and shot-making panache can illuminate an indoor surface, providing him with greater first-strike power than anyone whom he could face before the final.  Will fatigue hamper him after such an overloaded schedule in the first half, however?

Garcia-Lopez (Bangkok):  Not even among the top tier of players from his own country, he recorded the finest accomplishment of his career with a three-set comeback victory over Nadal on this court a year ago.  Erasing break point after break point on that occasion, Garcia-Lopez displayed a tenacity against his legendary compatriot that he has shown too sporadically to become a consistent threat.  One wonders whether the quest to defend finalist points will inspire or weigh heavily upon him.

Gulbis (Bangkok):  Every few months, the Latvian reminds viewers why he looked certain a few years ago to vault into the top 10 and contend for all of the non-clay majors.  His latest resurrection occurred in Los Angeles, where he knocked off Del Potro and Fish under the gaze of new coach Guillermo Canas.   Since that week, Gulbis has accomplished nothing of note.  A haven for head-scratchers and underachievers, the fall seems an ideal platform for him to make another of his sporadic statements, although he has struggled against potential quarterfinal opponent Murray (0-5).

Dimitrov (Bangkok):  Compared alternately to Federer and Gulbis, the Bulgarian possesses the backhand of the former and the mystifying streakiness of the latter.  This summer, he lost consecutive matches to players outside the top 100, bookending commendable efforts against Tsonga and Ferrer, before failing to win a set from Monfils in New York.  While the streakiness certainly causes concern for his future, the one-handed backhand also may leave him behind his peers as the stroke becomes an anachronism.  Dimitrov has developed a habit of playing to the level of the competition and the tournament, so his upset over fifth-seeded Dodig in the first round represented encouraging progress.

Donald Young (Bangkok):  A tournament after his second-week appearance at the US Open, the enigmatic, controversial Young returns to the Tour’s daily, less inspiring routine.  Unable to exploit any positive momentum earlier in his career of violent oscillations, he can’t afford to let many more such chances slip past.  Probably the victim of inflated expectations when young, Young still could carve out a respectable tenure in the top 50 if he has learned from both his successes and failures during this dramatic season for him.

Davydenko / Baghdatis (Kuala Lumpur):  Masters of flat, scorching groundstrokes from both wings, these veterans have struggled with injuries in recent years that have undermined their consistency.  Both also have failed to overcome key flaws in their game:  the serve for the Russian and fitness for the Cypriot.  The more brilliant player when at his best, Davydenko has suffered the more precipitous fall but won Shanghai two years with consecutive victories over Djokovic and Nadal.  More than five years removed from his breakthrough at the Australian Open final, Baghdatis has slipped less inexorably into obsolescence and seems the more likely of the two to regroup.

Harrison / Tomic (Kuala Lumpur):  After impressive Wimbledons, including a quarterfinal appearance for the Australian, they regressed with straight-sets defeats to Cilic at the US Open.  Probably the most promising talent among ATP teenagers, Tomic demonstrated his maturity in defeating Wawrinka and recurrently troubling Federer on grass in Davis Cup.  The fall season and especially tournaments like these offer them opportunities to consume relatively cheap rankings points that would position them more auspiciously for the more noteworthy events.  Unfortunately for them, they landed in the same quarter as each other and Davydenko, Harrison’s first-round opponent.

Robin Haase (Bangkok):  Just one place below his career-high ranking, the flying Dutchman has won nine of his last eleven matches in a streak that started with his first career title (Kitzbuhel).  Leading Murray by two sets at the US Open, he faded physically late in the match as his physical condition continues to undermine him.  A lanky, brittle player who looks taller than his height, Haase will appreciate the affinity of indoor courts for short points that will not test his questionable movement or footwork.  He could earn a seed at the Australian Open with a successful fall campaign.

 

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Novak Djokovic - Sony Ericsson Open

As two marquee events hover just beyond the horizon, we unfold some of the potential narratives to consider at this week’s small tournaments, overtures to the clay symphonies in Rome and Madrid.

The march to 28-0 (Belgrade):  Notably absent from Nadal’s triumphal parade through Monte Carlo and Barcelona was his North American bête noir.  Seeking a well-deserved respite during the past two weeks, Djokovic now will ease into his clay campaign at home against a draw otherwise headlined by Troicki, Garcia-Lopez, and Montanes .  The world #2’s unblemished 2011 record should survive this week unscathed, placing him in position to win his first 30 matches of the season should he reach the Madrid quarterfinals.  A staggering accomplishment by any measure, this current winning streak has come at the expense of redoubtable foes who demanded a high degree of focus.  Will Djokovic let that focus slip when he faces less heralded opponents?  Although he will bask in the adulation of his compatriots, he finds himself in a position where anything less than a dominant charge to the title will register as a disappointment.  Rafa handled a similar situation masterfully in Barcelona, and now we will find whether Novak can match his poise.  On the other hand, nobody in the draw probably possesses the necessary nerve—and perhaps nastiness—to ruin the Serb’s homecoming.

Digging out of doldrums (Estoril):  Anchoring the Portuguese draw, Soderling and Verdasco would benefit enormously from a jolt of momentum before the lucrative events ahead.   No elite contender has endured an odder start to the season than the Swede, who won three of his first four tournaments and 19 of his first 20 matches but lost before the quarterfinals in Melbourne, Indian Wells, and Miami.  Hampered in recent weeks by both illness and injury, Soderling did not quite excel during the road to Roland Garros last season but reversed his fortunes with frightening speed.  In fact, he dropped his Nice opener just a week before launching his second straight finals run in Paris.  Perhaps in greater need of psychological succor, therefore, is the Spaniard who stalked away from Barcelona in pique when the tournament denied him a wildcard.  Verdasco’s injured pride may finally catalyze his revival from a period of irritable listlessness that has precipitated his tumble from the top 10.  Situated among the less dangerous half of the draw, he should encounter less sturdy resistance than Soderling.  Succumbing to Del Potro in Miami, the Swede may well confront the 2009 Roland Garros semifinalist again in the quarterfinals, when this gentle seaside town could witness some fantastically ungentle ball-striking.

Backhands do battle (Munich):  While Soderling and Verdasco aim to shift into a higher gear, several of the players at the BMW tournament hope to change the direction of their vehicles entirely.  Chief among them is world #39 Nikolay Davydenko, who in about fifteen months has fallen from a top-8 seed in Melbourne to a top-8 seed in Munich.  The former World Tour Finals champion has unleashed some of his finest tennis on clay, even troubling Nadal four years ago in Rome.  Despite fleeting signs of revival, though, his scintillating groundstrokes have not regained their sting from late 2009 since a wrist injury.  More perplexing is the decline of former prodigy Marin Cilic, who has quietly receded without suffering substantial injury.  Their two-handers could collide in a quarterfinal, while another quarterfinal could feature the elegant one-handers of Kohlschreiber and Wawrinka.  Without Federer looming above him, the Swiss #2 will have the opportunity to exhibit the clay skills that carried him to the Rome final three years ago.  Atop the draw looms yet another fine one-hander in Youzhny, rarely a threat on clay and a possible second-round victim for Barcelona semifinalist Ivan Dodig.  Otherwise, the Russian might confront the dangerous, flat two-hander of Baghdatis.  While improving his fitness, the Cypriot has continued his frustratingly erratic results this year, and he faces an intriguing early test against the much-discussed teenager Grigor Dimitrov.

A Groth by any other name (Estoril): Uncoupled this month from her Aussie husband, the former Slovak hopes that her tennis does not revert to a pre-Groth state together with her name.  A generally solid start to 2011 for Gajdosova augurs well for her ability to wreak limited havoc on clay.   Although few would envy her movement on the surface, she possess sufficient power to hit through even the slowest surface and, like her compatriot Stosur, will enjoy the additional time to measure her groundstrokes.  Thus, one hopes that her divorce and Fed Cup disappointment do not weigh heavily upon her shoulders.  While few bold-faced names here have earned their living during the European spring, the paceless groundstrokes of Sevastova and Zakopalova could trouble the unwary on such a slow surface.  Still unseeded after a strong Miami performance, Medina Garrigues might navigate deeper into this draw than one might expect.  Likewise of note are two youngsters, Radwanska’s sister Urszula and Fez runner-up Simona Halep, a Romanian more natural on clay than many of her peers.

The crucible of clay (Barcelona):  In 2010, the WTA champion at this tiny event brought home the ultimate clay prize from Paris.  Few are the suspects who could repeat the feat this year, although Schiavone would remind us that “nothing is impossible.”  Is the impossible nothing for Alexandra Dulgheru, a clay specialist who reached the quarterfinals in Miami?  Or for Tsvetana Pironkova, a Wimbledon semifinalist last year who has almost entirely evaporated since?  Lightning rarely strikes twice, but beware of taking anyone too lightly in the WTA’s current whirlwind of flux.

Perhaps the quietest month of the tennis season, February hovers uneasily between the Australian Open and the two mini-Slams of Indian Wells and Miami.  As the contenders converge upon North America, we reflect upon the four events that unfolded during this month’s final week.  Who holds a game point, who rests in equilibrium at deuce, and who faces break point?

Vera Zvonareva - WTA Dubai Barclays Tennis Championship - Day Four

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Zvonareva: After an uncertain start to 2011, the world #3 snapped a five-final losing streak in emphatic fashion against a player who had captured two finals from her in 2010.  Rarely threatened by Wozniacki in Doha, Zvonareva won her first title since Pattaya City last year and will bring considerable momentum to the California desert, where she collected the most notable trophy of her career thus far.  Two rounds before her victory over the world #1, moreover, the Russian displayed physical and psychological resilience by outlasting Hantuchova after tottering within two points of defeat in an epic three-setter.

The single most impressive moment of her week, however, may have come in the penultimate game of her semifinal with Jankovic.  After splitting a pair of lopsided sets, the Russian and the Serb traded hold for hold through eight games of the final set without facing a break point.  In the ninth game, Zvonareva opened with two egregious errors and a double fault to hand Jankovic triple break point, at which stage a meltdown looked imminent.  But then came three unreturnable serves and later an ace to punctuate this crucial hold.  A staggered Serb conceded the match-ending break a game later, undone by the unexpected poise under pressure from an opponent famous for her fragility.  Although she had not yet claimed the title, Zvonareva responded to that adversity with the composure of a champion.

Djokovic: Like Zvonareva, he looked much less bulletproof throughout the week than the player whom he ultimately defeated in the final.  Unlike Zvonareva two weeks before, the Serb captured a tournament for the third successive year, a feat unprecedented in his career.  Saving his best for last, Djokovic delivered his finest tennis of the week against Federer in the final as he surpassed the Swiss star in both of the latter’s greatest strengths, the serve and the forehand.  The Australian Open champion cruised through service games more efficiently than Federer, finding first serves at crucial moments and targeting all four corners of the service boxes.  (In fact, Djokovic dropped only one total service game during his two victories over top-10 opponents Berdych and Federer.)  Somewhat less surprisingly, the Serb generally fired the decisive salvo in their forehand-to-forehand exchanges, often freezing Federer with scorching cross-court angles.  Juxtaposing his undefeated record in 2011 with his previous triumphs in Indian Wells and Miami, we christen him the slight favorite at both North American events.

Del Potro: Not content with a third consecutive semifinal appearance, the gentle giant marched to his first title since the 2009 US Open.  From one week to the next, Del Potro’s confidence has mounted as his movement has grown more natural, his anticipation keener, and his forehands more fluid.  The Argentine also struck his backhands with greater authority, unafraid to attempt winners from his crisp two-hander as well as his more intimidating wing.  Still fallible is the serve that contributed untimely double faults to Fish in the semifinal and offered eleven break points to Tipsarevic in the final, of which the Serb courteously spurned ten.  Nevertheless, Del Potro will join Raonic among the most dangerous dark horses in Indian Wells and Miami, especially the latter event with its vociferous Latin American fans.

Jankovic: Five points from her first final since last year’s clay season, the former #1 bolstered her Dubai revival with a second straight semifinal.  Jankovic has rediscovered the range on her scintillating backhands and served above her normal level against Zvonareva, allowing her to expend less effort on each point.  While she reverses direction less smoothly than she once did, her lateral movement continues to frustrate opponents who rely upon winning points from the baseline.  Although the Serb seems unlikely to defend her Indian Wells crown, she might lose fewer points there than we initially expected.  And she might well have won her match with Zvonareva had they played on clay, where she should distinguish herself once again.

Roger Federer - 2011 Australian Open - Day 11

Deuce:

Federer: For elite contenders like the Swiss, tournaments like Dubai principally provide preparation for more pivotal events on the calendar.  Thus, Federer accomplished his central goal this week by playing five matches before traveling to the North American hard courts.  On the other hand, he followed four routine victories over unimposing foes with a lackluster performance against Djokovic.  Often missing backhands by feet rather than inches, the top seed donated far too many unforced errors to exert pressure upon the Serb, and he struggled to absorb Djokovic’s pace at both the baseline and the net.  Although Federer remains #2 in the rankings, few would consider him currently the second-best player in the world.

Wozniacki: Like Federer, the women’s #1 swept comfortably to the final and then lost rather comfortably when she arrived there.  Through her first three matches, Wozniacki demolished three estimable opponents with heightened aggression that some analysts attributed to a lingering illness.  Against Petrova, Bartoli, and Peer, she attempted uncharacteristically bold forehands and even ventured into the forecourt at times for swinging volleys.  But she retreated from that aggression when the competition stiffened in the final against Zvonareva, who combined superior power with sufficient consistency to stifle the counterpunching Dane.   While Wozniacki will continue to win the vast majority of matches with her trademark, high-percentage style, she will not take the next step forward until she gains the confidence to seize the initiative more often against marquee opponents.  Nevertheless, the relatively slow surfaces at Indian Wells and Miami should showcase her strengths as they did last season.

Acapulco: A jarring sight in February, the Mexican red clay hosted many of the week’s most compelling matches.  Accelerating prodigy Alexander Dolgopolov scored a notable victory over Wawrinka before taking a set from Ferrer, one of the finest clay-courters of his generation.  Meanwhile, Almagro extended his scalding recent form into a three-set final against his fellow Spaniard, who defended his title only after 161 minutes of grinding rallies, flowing one-handed backhands (Almagro), ruthless inside-out forehands (Ferrer), and imaginative shot selection (both players).  Yet this magnificent entertainment seems virtually irrelevant to the impending hard-court Masters tournaments.  The Latin American clay-court strongholds must decide whether to risk abandoning their traditional clay-court niche and shift to hard courts, where they would fit more logically into a February wedged between key hard-court events in Melbourne and Indian Wells.

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Li Na: After winning her first eleven matches of 2011, the Australian Open finalist will bring a three-match losing streak to Indian Wells.  A week after wasting four consecutive match points against Wickmayer, Li managed just three games against Klara Zakopalova.  Continuing a career-long pattern of peaks and valleys, the Chinese star has grown more dangerous but perhaps no more consistent.

Kuznetsova: Perhaps weary from the previous week’s exertions, this similarly mercurial competitor could not capitalize upon her Dubai momentum and sagged in her Doha opener against Peer.  One should not discount Kuznetsova on the ultra-slow hard courts in the California desert, however, where she has reached two previous finals.

Verdasco: Defeated twice by Raonic in less than a week, he expressed churlish contempt for the hard courts (and his opponent) as he stalked spitefully off to Acapulco.  But karma descended to smite Verdasco with a first-round loss to Bellucci, which perhaps reminded him that his struggles stem from more than the surface.  Ironically, the Spaniard has accomplished at least as much on hard courts as on clay, so he should not squeeze himself too eagerly into the role of one-dimensional dirt devil.

In the four tournaments that unfolded this week, each top seed advanced to the final.  Can the favorites quell their last challengers to claim their crowns?  Entrusting Buenos Aires to other pens, we preview the championship tilts in Dubai, Memphis, and Marseille.

Caroline Wozniacki - WTA Dubai Barclays Tennis Championship - Day Five

Wozniacki vs. Kuznetsova:  Just as she did last fall in Beijing, the gentle but determined Dane seeks to consolidate her #1 ranking with a title.  Although semifinal victim Jankovic has sagged in recent months, Wozniacki will have gained additional momentum from securing her first career victory over the Serb after four losses.  Such skids do not end easily notwithstanding the quality of the opponent, and the top seed saved four set points before outlasting her fellow counterpuncher.  Illustrating her resilient character, Wozniacki has recovered impressively from her deflating semifinal loss at the Australian Open.  If she can notch a third consecutive Premier Five crown, she would travel to the crucial North American hard-court events with impetus for duplicating or perhaps surpassing her sterling performances there last year.

In just her second appearance at this event, Wozniacki faces an opponent who has contested two previous finals and two other semifinals in the Persian Gulf oasis.  Defeating three successive higher-ranked opponents, Kuznetsova has catapulted herself within range of the top 10 after meandering outside the top 20 before this tournament.  Her game conforms smoothly to the Dubai courts, fast enough to reward her forehand blows but not so fast that she cannot run around her backhand.  Once farcically feckless in finals, the Russian now has won her last three championship matches, including Roland Garros and the prestigious Premier Mandatory tournament in Beijing.  Conceding her two previous Dubai finals in three sets, Kuznetsova can hope that the third time proves lucky against a foe with whom she has split their four hard-court meetings.

Yet the momentum in this mini-rivalry lies with Wozniacki, who succumbed to Kuznetsova at Indian Wells and Miami before she ascended to the top 10.  Since arriving in that elite group, the Dane has won both of her collisions with the Russian, including a 2009 US Open rollercoaster that careened wildly between the ridiculous and sublime until it climaxed in a third-set tiebreak.  Less athletically gifted than Sveta, Caro demonstrated her firmer focus and steadier desire when she captured their rain-addled semifinal in Montreal last year.  While her weapons do not rival those of her opponent, Wozniacki’s court coverage will test Kuznetsova’s ability to finish points.  Despite a high first-serve percentage in her semifinal against Pennetta, the Russian struggled to hold serve and cannot rely upon many free points from her delivery.  Her forehand does possess the raw power necessary to hit through Wozniacki from the baseline, so her success will depend upon striking as many of those strokes as possible without conceding too much court territory.  If the Dane can pin Sveta behind the baseline and organize rallies around their backhands, though, her superior consistency will prevail.  Although less experienced and (so far) less accomplished, she brings greater confidence to their encounter than Kuznetsova, still in the process of rediscovering a game that had deserted her until a few weeks ago.

Andy Roddick - 2011 Australian Open - Day 5

Roddick vs. Raonic:  Having hurled 97 aces at his first four opponents, the Montenegrin-turned-Canadian might club as many aces this week as did Isner at Wimbledon last year.  Beyond that magnificent statistic, however, lurks a concerning corollary.  Amidst his serving barrage, Raonic has played two third-set tiebreaks and four total three-setters over the past four days.  Somewhat less brilliant than during his exhilarating title surge in San Jose, this untested wildcard has dropped sets to the fading Stepanek and the irrelevant Kendrick.  He may enter the final physically and emotionally jaded from the events of the past fortnight, which have propelled him to a renown that he could not have imagined when the season began.  A few parallels emerge between his week in Memphis and the series of epic wins that the then-unheralded Isner scored en route to the Washington final a few years ago.  Then, Roddick subdued his challenger with relative ease.

On the other hand, Raonic ranks among the few players in the ATP who can cruise through service games as swiftly as the American.  Accustomed to playing much longer games on return than on serve, Roddick may find his fortitude tested by an opponent with a mightier forehand and superior forecourt skills.  Free from pressure against Verdasco in San Jose, Raonic delivered perhaps the most composed, bulletproof performance of his torrid streak.  Unruffled by the Spaniard’s ability to hold serve without drama, he should not flinch when Roddick does the same.  Twice rallying from one-set deficits this week, moreover, the top seed has not held serve as comfortably as one might expect on an indoor hard court.  But his competitive resilience enabled him to reverse the tide against Berankis and Hewitt.

Following those stumbles, Roddick found his rhythm midway through his quarterfinal and rarely relinquished it in a dominant victory against Del Potro.  Like Wozniacki, Roddick will have accumulated momentum from defeating a player who had tormented him in their most notable previous meetings.  Also like Wozniacki, Roddick will want to erase the disappointing conclusion to his Melbourne campaign with a title that would buttress his confidence before defending his 2010 achievements at Indian Wells and Miami.  In order to reclaim his elite stature, the top seed must recapture his mastery over tiebreaks.  Roddick’s record in thirteenth games sagged precipitously during the second half of 2010, but he did win an 18-point nail-biter against former nemesis Tipsarevic that lifted him to 3-0 in 2011 tiebreaks.  Considering the mighty serves on display in Memphis today, his 50th career final may offer him an opportunity to burnish that record.

Robin Soderling - 2011 Australian Open - Day 2

Soderling vs. Cilic:  Contrary to our expectations, the scowling Swede needed no time at all to transition from savior Magnus Norman to new guide Claudio Pistolesi.  Undefeated at non-majors this year, Soderling has rampaged to his fourth final in his last six tournaments while dropping his serve only once this week.  The trio of Mahut, Llodra, and Tursunov exerted scant pressure upon an opponent who relishes indoor hard courts as much as the outdoor clay on which he has reached two Slam finals and defeated the two greatest players of his era.  A 2004 finalist in Marseille, the Swede also has developed a curious affinity for the nation of brioches and Bardot; three of his eight titles have come on French soil, including his sole Masters 1000 crown thus far.  But his opponent also has reaped rewards on this surface, where he has won two titles and reached a third final.

Enduring an annus miserabilis that extended with little respite from Indian Wells last year to Zagreb this year, Cilic finally flickered into life with a victory over the 11th-ranked Melzer in Rotterdam last week.  (The glow faded a bit from that victory, to be sure, when the 129th-ranked Tursunov toppled the Austrian on Friday.)  In contrast to Soderling, the unseeded Cilic has battled to the final past a pair of top-10 players in Berdych and Youzhny, whom he conquered in contrasting manners.  Comprehensively commanding against the Czech, the Croat saved a match point in a vigorously contested semifinal against the Russian.  Such a triumph could calm his nerves when he confronts the heavily favored Soderling, for the world #28 will count himself fortunate to have escaped Youzhny and earned this berth in the final.  Nobody would identify with that situation more keenly than the Swede, who himself won Rotterdam last week after saving a match point against Kohlschreiber.

Mustering little resistance to Soderling at Roland Garros last year, Cilic never has faced him on the hard court that he prefers.  Gifted with symmetrical groundstrokes, both players can terminate points as emphatically with their two-handers as with their fearsome forehands and serves.   We expect short, sharp exchanges low on point construction and high on first-strike firepower, the ideal brand of tennis for indoor conditions.  Can Cilic rise to the occasion and test the world #4?  Even if he contents himself with a runner-up trophy, which seems likely, a competitive performance would position him promisingly for the mini-majors ahead in California and Florida.

***

We return soon to preview the men’s draw in Dubai, which will offer a first post-Melbourne glimpse of the Australian Open champion and his semifinal victim.

Roger Federer - 2011 Australian Open - Day 11