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Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark celebrates during day seven of the Toray Pan Pacific Open tennis tournament at Ariake Colosseum on October 2, 2010 in Tokyo, Japan. Caroline Wozniacki of Denmark defeated Elena Dementieva of Russia 1-6, 6-2, 6-3.

Less than two weeks after the US Open finals, the fall season ignites with a Premier Five tournament in Tokyo that features seven of the WTA top 10 although not two of the season’s four Slam champions or Serena Williams.  The top two in the world and the top two seeds, Wozniacki and Sharapova won the last two editions of this event, so they will hope to begin the march towards Istanbul with commanding performances here.

First quarter:  After falling in the US Open semifinal last year, Wozniacki vaulted from that achievement to consecutive titles in Tokyo and Beijing.  Despite the relatively fast surface of the Ariake Colosseum, she eyes a comfortable route to the semifinals, far from the leading power-hitters who could topple her.  Thwarted in her openers at her last two Premier Five tournaments, the Dane can rely upon her familiar steadiness to withstand the erratic Gajdosova or the inexperienced Marino.  While US Open quarterfinalist Flavia Pennetta might await in the third round, she has lost all five meetings with Wozniacki and twice on the clay that most favors her strengths against the top seed.  Aligned to face the defending champion in the quarterfinals is the former generation’s Wozniacki, Jankovic, who came within a few points of the Cincinnati title before suffering her sixth straight pre-quarterfinal exit at a major.  Runner-up to Sharapova here two years ago, the Serb initially dominated the Dane before losing three times to her this spring in clashes between the WTA’s two premier counterpunchers.  Lurking to intercept Jankovic in the third round, US Open semifinalist Angelique Kerber would need to repeat her New York upset over Radwanska.  In her opener, meanwhile, the loathsome Quebec champion Zahlavova Strycova aims to engage Jelena in a contentious catfight.  But the Serb should survive such distractions and the lefty style of Kerber before Wozniacki outlasts her again.

Semifinalist:  Wozniacki

Second quarter:  An undeserving first-week loser in New York, Azarenka will fancy her chances of striking deep into the draw should she maintain the level that she showed during the second set against Serena there.   She has won all six sets that she has played against most probable third-round opponent Peer, although the Israeli has struggled this season following  a 2010 campaign that brought her to the verge of the year-end championships.  Among the intriguing players in this section is Radwanska’s sister Urszula, who qualified for the main draw after reaching the Tashkent semifinals and likewise qualifying for the US Open.  Considered a more offensive player than Aga, the younger Radwanska defeated first-round opponent Zakopalova earlier this year but probably could not threaten Azarenka.  In the lower section of this quarter, two double-fisters brace for collision in Peng and Bartoli, the former of whom has enjoyed a career season and perhaps the latter as well.  Inspired by an upset over Cibulkova in New York, Irina Falconi seeks to build upon a promising summer against home hope Ayumi Morita.  The most compelling first-round encounter in this section, however, pits rapidly rising American teenager Christina McHale against the former prodigy Tamira Paszek.  Known for epic matches against Jankovic and Schiavone at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, Paszek rebounded from injuries to reach her first Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon this summer—defeating McHale resoundingly en route.  A combined 11-2 against Peng and Bartoli, Azarenka will find herself in a winnable quarterfinal no matter the opponent, able to rely upon her symmetrical groundstrokes and superior movement.

Semifinalist:  Azarenka

Third quarter:  Unaccountably frowning upon Zvonareva, the draw deities once again assigned her a likely quarterfinal meeting with Stosur, who has won their last eight encounters.  Even before that stage, the Russian might find her solid but not electrifying offense tested by Cibulkova, who gradually ground her down physically and emotionally at Indian Wells.  Amplifying her forehand while committing to greater aggression, the Slovak has registered two victories over Wozniacki this year despite disappointing for most of the summer as an abdominal strain hampered her.  Can countrywoman and Guangzhou finalist Magdalena Rybarikova ambush Cibulkova and trouble Zvonareva?  That possibility looks doubtful, which suggests that the 2011 US Open champion should meet the 2010 US Open runner-up once more.  The only serious threat to Stosur before the quarterfinals, Ivanovic plays a style strikingly similar to the Aussie with serve-forehand combinations masking an indifferent backhand.  While they have split their four previous meetings, all in uneventful fashion, one would favor the US Open champion over the former Roland Garros champion because of her recent serving superiority.  On the other hand, first-time Slam champions Li and Kvitova suffered post-breakthrough hangovers that continue to linger.  In the first match since stunning Serena on Arthur Ashe Stadium, Stosur cannot afford such a lapse when she faces Kirilenko for the second straight tournament.  Collaborating on a 32-point tiebreak at the US Open, they might produce another scintillating encounter with their crisp net play, refined in doubles.

Semifinalist:  Stosur

Fourth quarter:  From a champion in 2009 to a first-round victim in 2010, Sharapova has mirrored her career’s radical oscillations in her fortunes at the Toray Pan Pacific Open.  Two years ago, her unexpected title charge followed the ignominious 21-double fault loss to Oudin in New York, illustrating her talent for reinvigorating herself immediately after her setbacks.  In 2011, another dismal three-set loss in the third round of the US Open might perform the same function, inspiring Sharapova to visit retribution upon her next sequence of opponents.  As proved the case last year, though, she could face a challenging opening assignment in New Haven finalist Petra Cetkovska, who reached the second week at Wimbledon before defeating Radwanska, Bartoli, and Li Na consecutively at the Yale tournament.  Sharapova’s conqueror in 2010, Kimiko Date-Krumm, has fallen in the same quarter again but now will target Wimbledon champion Kvitova.  Since blazing 222 winners to capture her first Slam title, the Czech flamed out of the North American hard-court season with just two victories in three tournaments.  Although she should solve the fading Date-Krumm (perhaps not without difficulty), US Open quarterfinalist Pavlyuchenkova poses a more formidable obstacle in the third round.  These budding rivals have split their four meetings, including two this year, and have reached third sets in all of them.  Despite the disparity in their rankings, therefore, the Russian’s accelerating momentum and their past history incline one to slightly favor an upset.  Sharapova certainly would prefer an upset, for she has won 14 of her last 15 matches against fellow Russians and her only meeting with Pavlyuchenkova, albeit in three sets.

Semifinalist:  Sharapova

Maria Sharapova Maria Sharapova of Russia poses with the trophy after winning the women's final match against Jelena Jankovic of Serbia during day seven of the Toray Pan Pacific Open Tennis tournament at Ariake Colosseum on October 3, 2009 in Tokyo, Japan.

We return to continue the stories of Tokyo by the quarterfinals or so, perhaps with an excursion to Bangkok beforehand.  (If the title reference whizzed past you like a Sharapova backhand, consider investigating the work of Yasujiro Ozu.)

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Serena Williams - Rogers Masters presented by National Bank - Day 7

Jovanovski vs. Serena:  When she returned to Wimbledon, an emotional Serena endured a three-set rollercoaster against a shotmaker flamboyant and unpredictable even by WTA standards in Aravane Rezai.  Less extreme a personality than the Frenchwoman, the third-ranked Serb Bojana Jovanovski still might pose a creditable threat.  Winning a set from Zvonareva at the Australian Open, Jovanovski threatened Sharapova in Toronto and has not looked intimidated by either an elite opponent or a grand stage.  A night session in Arthur Ashe Stadium should not rattle her nerves, therefore, especially since much of the crowd may depart following the opening men’s match.  But Serena never has lost a first-round match at a major, while her return should regularly menace Jovanovski’s serve as did Sharapova’s replies.  Only if the Serb can survive the American’s first strike on serve and return can she display her talents from the baseline, which should shine sporadically during the lulls in Serena’s play without becoming the dominant narrative.

Ferrer vs. Andreev:  Clay-courters by nature, both of these grizzled veterans have achieved some of their most memorable moments on a surface seemingly at odds with their styles.  Four years ago, Ferrer battled past Nadal in a night-session four-setter en route to the semifinals, a surge that attests less to his shot-making ability than his mental and physical durability.  In the following US Open, Andreev extended Federer to five sets in what proved the eventual champion’s most compelling test of the tournament.  Reliant on meticulous effort more than spontaneous inspiration, this duo should engage in a series of elongated rallies punctuated by their common strength, inside-out forehands.  Amidst Andreev’s decline, Ferrer has won their last three meetings after losing four of their previous five.  Nevertheless, the Spaniard played only two matches during the US Open Series and lacks the match rhythm that has formed the cornerstone of his success.  Although Andreev probably can’t win, the match should stay closer than their respective rankings would suggest.

Jankovic vs. Riske:  A bright day for the future of American women’s tennis, Monday witnessed victories by rising star Christina McHale and perhaps soon-rising star Madison Keys.  Tasked with a far more difficult challenge, Riske hopes to hand Jankovic her second straight opening-round loss at a major.  Since reaching the 2008 US Open final, the Serb has suffered first-week exits in her last two appearances during her descent from the top ranking.  Meanwhile, her odd summer has featured three first-match losses (Wimbledon, Toronto, New Haven) surrounding a finals appearance in Cincinnati, where she came within four points of the title.  With wins over Schiavone and Petkovic there, together with a resilient effort against Sharapova, Jankovic proved that she can unleash bursts of her former competitive vigor and her trademark smile.  Not available in New York, on-court coaching appeared to aid her significantly at key moments in Cincinnati.  If Riske poses a challenge, can Jankovic solve it without assistance?

Youzhny vs. Gulbis:  From countries chained together during much of the last century, these two competitors could not diverge more strikingly in playing style.  Roaming around the court like a Cossack on the steppe, Youzhny exploits its geometry with a graceful albeit not powerful game.  The 2010 US Open semifinalist will shoulder the burden of defending those massive quantities of points, however, and much less pressure has unhinged him before.  Reinvigorated for now by new coach Guillermo Canas, Gulbis enjoyed an encouraging US Open Series highlighted by a title in Los Angeles, where he defeated Del Potro and Fish.  Revolving entirely around raw power, his muscular shot-making aims to pound opponents out of a point before they settle into it.  The Latvian should deny the Russian time to construct his clever combinations, but the best-of-five format will test his questionable consistency.  Always susceptible to emotional peaks and valleys, Gulbis can score this minor upset only by sustaining his focus more effectively than in majors past.

Davydenko vs. Dodig:  While one star wanes, another star rises.  Like his countryman Youzhny, Davydenko has reached the final weekend at the year’s final major before but has plummeted with stunning speed to ATP purgatory.  Surrounded in the rankings by unfamiliar journeymen, this formerly fascinating ball-striker rarely recaptures the form that catapulted him into the top 5 almost as swiftly.  By contrast, Dodig had gained little notoriety until he became the only player to win a set from Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open, then won his home tournament in Zagreb, and most notably conquered Nadal in a third-set tiebreak.  Such exploits have paved the route to his first seeding at a Slam, although ironically not a kinder draw.  An emotional player in the past, Dodig has maintained his composure more effectively this year while serving more impressively than one would expect from a player of his modest height.  The vintage Davydenko would have experienced little trouble in defusing his serve and net-rushing tactics with a sparkling array of returns and passing shots, but the depleted Davydenko no longer possesses that pinpoint timing.

Marino vs. Dulko:  Overshadowed this year by her compatriot Raonic, Marino has stalled in recent months after she nearly toppled Schiavone in Melbourne and reached the Memphis final.  On a four-match losing streak, the Canadian nevertheless fell just a few spots below a seeded position at the tournament where she impressed in a loss to Venus last year.  Marino’s explosive serve should reap rewards on this slick surface, although one would have thought the same on the fast courts of Stanford and Cincinnati.  Aligned against her is an opponent playing her first Slam as a married woman, an understated counterpuncher with an uncanny knack for upsets.  As players as renowned as Henin and Sharapova have discovered, Dulko can capitalize upon fallible performances by opponents who typically would brush her aside.  Her Roland Garros victory over Stosur this year reminded viewers of the Argentine’s ability to overcome a substantial disadvantage on serve.

Ivanovic vs. Pervak:   At the only major where she has not reached a quarterfinal, the former #1 seeks not to contend for the title but to build momentum as she settles into her alliance with Nigel Sears.  Riding a wave of momentum herself, Pervak soared to the second week of Wimbledon after victories over Peer and Petkovic.  The Russian lefty then reached her first career final in Baku and competed more sturdily there than one might have expected in the circumstances.  Sometimes troubled by left-handers before, Ivanovic might benefit from the intimate confines of the Grandstand more than the cavernous vault of Arthur Ashe.  Two three-set losses in the opening rounds of majors this year probably will undermine her confidence should the match stay close, but the Serb also has served bagels in eight of her last fifteen opening-round matches.  Only when she holds the most commanding lead, it appears, can Ivanovic—and her fans—feel secure.

Ana Ivanovic - Western & Southern Open - Day 1

 

Sabine Lisicki - Bank of the West Classic - Day 2

Tucked unobtrusively into the week before consecutive Premier Five tournaments, the reinstated San Diego event has become a shadow of its former Tier I self.  Nevertheless, the La Costa Resort might host some intriguing if not star-studded collisions in its peaceful precincts.  We look ahead to the next week of the US Open Series….

Top half:  After demoralizing defeats at the European Slams, Zvonareva urgently needs a confidence injection before attempting to defend another Slam final appearance.  Unlikely to suffer an Erakovic-like setback, she should overcome her initial, unimpressive opponents through her consistency alone, but the plot could thicken in the quarterfinals.  At that stage, the Russian might encounter near-Roland Garros nemesis and Wimbledon semifinalist Lisicki, who translated her grass success to hard courts with a third straight semifinal at Stanford.  As her record against Stosur demonstrates, Zvonareva often finds powerful servers unnerving and has struggled in the rare WTA matches when service breaks actually mean something.  In a fascinating contrast of styles similar to her battle with Venus, Date-Krumm might encounter the German’s massive serve in the second round.  Her status uncertain following an abdominal injury at Stanford, Cibulkova also might challenge Zvonareva should she defuse Lisicki.  The Indian Wells clash between the Slovak and the Russian developed into a gritty, suspenseful epic, so a sequel certainly would enliven this draw.  Nor should one forget 2010 quarterfinalist Coco Vandeweghe, who defeated Zvonareva at her home tournament and continues to unleash thunderous serve-forehand combinations, albeit little else.

Among the few players in the second quarter not in an extended slump or terminal decline is the fourth seed Peng Shuai, who has reached semifinal after semifinal en route to a career-high ranking.  China’s #2 has defeated Li, Kuznetsova, and Zvonareva this year while taking sets from four of the current five.  Hardly an electrifying shot-maker, Peng generally wins by making her opponents as uncomfortable as possible, posing questions with her penetrating double-fisted groundstrokes down the center of the court that they struggle to answer.   If the fading Mirza finds forehands at critical moments, she could solve the Peng conundrum, as could the fifth-seeded Ivanovic.  Before she reaches the quarterfinals, however, the Serbian former #1 must overcome either last week’s Anapest, Morita, or the ever-dangerous Dokic in an opener.  Far from impressive at Stanford, Ivanovic looks unready for a deep run with her new coach.  But who else around her does?  After a promising beginning to 2011, Pennetta’s season quickly turned sour when she passed winless through the European clay, and her appearances at two post-Wimbledon clay tournaments suggest scant commitment to the summer hard courts.

Semifinal:  Lisicki d. Peng

Bottom half:  Stronger than the upper section, it could feature a quarterfinal that reprises last year’s semifinal between Hantuchova and Radwanska.  During a three-set loss to Sharapova at Stanford, the Slovak showed flashes of her brilliance this spring that illustrated her renewed confidence against even the more illustrious opponents.  Vanquished by the feisty Zahlavova Strycova at an earlier Wimbledon, she will need that confidence to retain her composure and advance to a potential meeting with third-ranked Serb Bojana Jovanovski.  A sudden sensation in Australia this year, Jovanovski has generated fewer headlines over the last several months, and Italian veteran Vinci will hope to unnerve the youngster with her nuanced array of spins and slices.  Nuance certainly defines the third-seeded Radwanska, a finalist in San Diego last year during an impressive US Open Series.  Less convincing lately, she failed to withstand the pressure of Lisicki’s serve at Stanford and might encounter similar difficulty against Gajdosova.  Also in the third quarter are home hopes Christina McHale and Melanie Oudin, heading in opposite directions since their appearances at the 2009 US Open.  Unable to overcome the disadvantage of her height, Oudin has not evolved into the balanced, opportunistic baseliner that McHale aims to become.

Bookended by two Germans, the lowest quarter also features a pair of streaky dark horses and a Wimbledon quarterfinalist.  Perplexing many an elite rival with her swerving lefty serve, Makarova should test Petkovic’s resilience in her opener rather than courteously ushering her into the top 10.  Meanwhile, Petkorazzi’s compatriot Goerges must contend with the heavy-serving Canadian Rebecca Marino, who threatened Venus at last year’s US Open.  After an unexpected four-match winning streak at the All England Club, former prodigy Tamira Paszek extended her momentum with a semifinal appearance in College Park.  Considering the fallibility displayed by Goerges at Stanford, the Austrian might fancy her chances of reversing the Anschluss.  The only player to win a set from Serena last week, Kirilenko also captured the Stanford doubles title and thus will have carried considerable confidence with her down Interstate 5.

Semifinal:  Petkovic d. Hantuchova

Final:  Lisicki d. Petkovic

***

Mardy Fish - Farmers Classic presented by Mercedes-Benz - Day 6

Having collected a championship trophy in Atlanta and a runner-up trophy in Los Angeles, Mardy Fish returns to the East Coast as the leading magnet for American ambitions this summer.  Expected to face him in the quarterfinals is one of two formerly renowned, recently feckless players.  Despite a finals appearance on clay in Umag, Verdasco has suffered a disappointing 2011 during which his ranking has receded to the edges of the top 20.  His collaborator in a memorably horrific Australian Open encounter last year, Davydenko has struggled to win consecutive matches since wrist surgery and now usually appears in headlines as the foil for enterprising newcomers.  Once considered potential Slam champions, neither of these players likely will regain their former glory, but one still wonders whether they can score the occasional surprise.  A pair of lefties might vie for the honor of meeting Fish in the semifinals, for Bellucci looks likely to collide with Melzer if he can escape a rusty Gonzalez.  Despite a victory over Federer on the European clay, the Austrian has fallen far short of his 2010 exploits and might find his brittle composure challenged by the unnerving Karlovic.

The only other top-10 player in the Washington draw, Gael Monfils, remains an enigmatic competitor although certainly a superior athlete with more explosive groundstrokes.  In his section also lurk Los Angeles semifinalist Alex Bogomolov, Jr. and Grigor Dimitrov, who frustratingly followed his Wimbledon accomplishments with momentum-halting losses to two players outside the top 200.  Ever a thorny task for higher-ranked opponents, Serbian #3 Tipsarevic might await Monfils in a quarterfinal rematch of their battle in the Davis Cup final, where the Frenchman comfortably handled the bespectacled eccentric.  Of note elsewhere in this half is Djokovic’s other understudy, the third-seeded Troicki, who seems to have internalized a keen sense of his position in the ATP food chain inside and outside his country.  Riding his towering serve to the Newport title and Atlanta final, Isner could confront Troicki in the quarterfinals and Monfils a round later should he repeat his tense Atlanta victory over aging countryman Blake.  Somewhat rejuvenating his fortunes during the hard-court summer, as he often has before, Blake temporarily has vindicated his decision to postpone retirement.  But second-round opponent Nalbandian hopes to craft a few closing highlights of his own before dusk settles on his career.

***

We return shortly with reflections on last week’s action in California.

Venus Williams Venus Williams of the United States in action during her first round match Akgul Amanmuradova of Uzbekistan on Day One of the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on June 20, 2011 in London, England.

Date-Krumm vs. V. Williams:  Commonly considered one of the WTA’s most seasoned veterans, Venus resembles a mere novice compared to her second-round opponents.  Still thirsty for competition into her fifth decade, Date-Krumm unleashed a stirring sequence of successes last year highlighted by victories over former #1s Safina and Sharapova.  In 2011, her miraculous rejuvenation waned as foes grew more familiar with her distinctive style and perhaps a bit less respectful of her age.  The Japanese star certainly cannot match Venus hold for hold, so her prospects for mustering a credible threat look slim indeed.  If she can embed herself in rallies, though, her short, flat, sharply angled strokes could test the five-time champion’s instincts and movement.  Kudos to the All England Club for featuring this classy pair of competitors on Centre Court.

Benneteau vs. Berdych:  Most dangerous on the fastest surfaces, the mercurial Frenchman defeated Federer at the Paris Indoors two years ago behind opportunistic forecourt attacks coupled with stinging down-the-line backhands.  Last summer, Benneteau held a match point against Nadal at the Rogers Cup, reminding spectators that this doubles specialist still can threaten the ATP elite in their mortal moments.  Surprisingly convincing in his opening win, Berdych eyes a reasonably comfortable draw en route to a quarterfinal with Nadal yet has struggled to capitalize on such situations before.  The 2010 finalist has not recaptured the form that earned consecutive victories over Federer and Djokovic here last year, although Wimbledon’s calm atmosphere may help settle his nerves.   Dour and somewhat laborious, the Czech must forestall the Frenchman from rushing him out of his comfort zone on a wave of positive energy as another Frenchman did against Berdych at Roland Garros.

Del Potro vs. Rochus:  Dwarfed by the lanky Argentine, the Belgian struck fear into an adversary as lofty as Djokovic in the opening round of Wimbledon 2010.  Leading by two sets to one on that occasion, Rochus ultimately could not overcome the Serb’s superiority on serve and sheer pace of shot.  While a similar task confronts him against Del Potro, the 2009 US Open champion rarely has imprinted his presence onto a significant grass draw.  In fact, Hewitt’s compact, far from overpowering style comfortably overcame the Argentine in straight sets during his last appearance here.  Normally an above-average mover among the ATP giants, Del Potro arranges his lanky limbs less naturally on grass, as a Queens Club loss to Mannarino illustrated.  With no points to defend through the rest of 2011, though, he can focus on accumulating points and momentum for the summer hard courts where his weapons have proved most lethal.

Dulgheru vs. Kuznetsova:  Far from top-10 quality for most of this season, Sveta could return to the top 10 with a second-week run here following her quarterfinal appearance at Roland Garros.  Always fonder of clay than grass, she still reached the quarterfinal here in 2007 and plausibly could repeat that feat in a section with no rival more imposing than Kvitova.  Kuznetsova has entertained audiences with a rollercoaster career built upon momentum surges and sputters, so one wonders whether that Paris accomplishment will remain an anomaly or ignite another upward climb.  Suggesting the former was an unnecessarily complicated opener, and the Russian has faltered against non-threatening but persistent opponents like Dulgheru for much of 2011.

Muller vs. Raonic:  If at first you don’t succeed, serve, serve, and serve again.  Such a motto has defined the careers of Muller and Raonic, two monumental ace machines with compromised movement but reasonable skills at the net.  When the Luxembourg lefty meets Canada’s Ancic-like prodigy, few points should extend past three or four shots in a contest that resembles less a tennis match than a dart-throwing competition.  Nevertheless, Wimbledon still offers the best possible venue in which to observe this curious manner of playing the sport, which led to Isner-Mahut here last year.  Viewed as a future Wimbledon champion by bolder prognosticators, Raonic thus far resembles Isner more than Sampras.  Whether or not such glory lies in his future, he can only profit from the experience of playing an opponent with a game so parallel to his own.

Pavlyuchenkova vs. Petrova:  As one Russian wanes, another emerges to supplant her.  A former Wimbledon quarterfinalist, Petrova possesses the heavy serve and aggressive mentality designed for success on grass.  Well past the apex of her abilities, however, she enters this match as an underdog against the highest-ranked teenager in the WTA.  Pavlyuchenkova reached her first Slam quarterfinal at Roland Garros, where she thoroughly dominated Schiavone for a set and a half.  A baseliner with little affinity for the net except regarding swing volleys, her laterally oriented style may not adapt as impressively to grass as to clay, while her serve remains a work in progress.  From a breakthrough as significant as her Paris performance, though, she may have gained the confidence to believe in herself as a genuine contender and a threat to emerge from the weakest quarter of the draw.

Marino vs. Vinci:  Not unlike Raonic, his female compatriot can release a thunderous serve that Venus once compared to her own.  Also not unlike Raonic, Marino has a rough-hewn, raw game that requires considerable refinement before she can vault much higher in the rankings.  The WTA rewards the exercise of unbridled power more handsomely than does the ATP, however, especially on faster surfaces.  By winning the Dutch Open title last week against the heavy-hitting Dokic, Vinci demonstrated a different way to win on grass:  with sharply carved slices, artistic volleys, and swift reflexes.  But will any of those skills matter against Marino’s one overpowering weapon?

Maria Sharapova Maria Sharapova of Russia plays a forehand during her first round match against Tamarine Tanasugarn of Thailand during day one of the 2011 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 17, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia.

Not without nerves in her opening victory, Sharapova steadied herself late in both sets and unleashed a pitiless barrage of groundstrokes far removed from the torrent of errors that she delivered in Melbourne last year.  As she marches deeper into the draw, however, the 2008 Australian Open champion must rediscover the rhythm on her serve, which abandoned her for prolonged periods against Tanasugarn.  In the second round, Sharapova must acquaint herself with the style of an opponent whom she never has encountered.  Perhaps best known for defeating Venus in the 2007 Tokyo final, Razzano has steadily climbed through the rankings after a controversial injury thrust her out of the top 100 last year.  Puny at first glance, she counterpunches capably and finds surprising depth on her groundstrokes.  But her second serve offers a tasty target for the Siberian, who lashed a series of scalding returns against Tanasugarn.  Even if Sharapova continues to struggle with her serve, therefore, she should break Razzano with sufficient frequency to defuse the pressure when she approaches the service notch.

Having focused on the women in Day 2, we focus largely on the men in Day 3:

Simon vs. Federer:  Rarely does a Federer second-round match intrigue beyond the potential of witnessing a between-the-legs missile.  But here the Swiss legend confronts one of the few unseeded players in the draw who has scored notable victories over him.  Twice rallying from one-set deficits against Federer, Simon stunned him at both the Rogers Cup and the year-end championships in 2008.  Crucial in those encounters, the Frenchman’s superb two-handed backhand exploited Roger’s vulnerable one-hander, a shot that has improved under the guidance of Paul Annacone.  Since Simon surely will seek to target that side again, this match should measure the progress of Federer’s backhand, perhaps not essential to this match but certainly to the tournament.  Despite a title in Sydney last week, the Frenchman has not quite returned to his 2008 heights and will struggle to match the defending champion’s serve.  In the best-of-five format, moreover, Federer can avoid more comfortably the concentration lapses that have cost him so dearly against Simon.

Tipsarevic vs. Verdasco:  Shining almost as brightly as his shirt during his opening-round victory, the 2009 semifinalist showed few signs of the malaise that plagued him through the second half of 2010.  As he seeks to rekindle the memories of two years ago, he confronts a Serb who habitually rises to the level of his competition.  Tipsarevic has ambushed Roddick twice at majors, including at the US Open last fall, and nearly toppled Federer in a memorable meeting at the 2008 Australian Open.  Not always the most sensible shotmakers, both players can raise eyebrows in more ways than one.  Don’t be surprised to see Verdasco hit (or attempt to hit) flagrant winners from several feet behind the baseline, or Tipsarevic aim for extravagantly angled second serves.  Leaving discretion to the top seeds, these two showmen know how to enliven the first week.

Berdych vs. Kohlschreiber:  The dissonance between their personalities emerges through the contrast between their backhands.  Armed with one of the flashiest one-handed backhands in the game, the German continues to defy national stereotypes with his flamboyant personality and playing style.   Restrained to a conservative two-hander, the somewhat reserved Berdych needs to start 2011 promisingly after a disappointing second half raised questions surrounding the legitimacy of his mid-season breakthrough.  If the Czech seeks to permanently establish himself among the ATP elite, the volatile Kohlschreiber personifies the brand of dangerous dark horse whom he must regularly overcome.

Marino vs. Schiavone:  Trumpeted as the future of Canadian tennis, this big-serving teenager won the admiration of Venus when she extended her to a first-set tiebreak at the US Open last fall.  Highly fallible in her opener against the unheralded Parra Santonja, Schiavone will need her stinging slices and artful forecourt ploys to dull the power from across the net, especially on Marino’s serve.  Can the Italian veteran continue to uphold the banner of subtle finesse against raw, ball-bruising force?

Wawrinka vs. Dimitrov:  After the example set by Gasquet, one should beware of labeling any teenager a “little Federer,” but the label has hovered around Dimitrov like a halo.  While he has defeated Simon and other noteworthy names, he has not yet achieved the Slam breakthrough that would catapult him into the attention of sports fans worldwide.  His resounding victory over Golubev augured well for his season, and a triumph over the Swiss #2 would deliver an imposing statement.  A champion in Chennai, Wawrinka surged within a set of the semifinals in New York; beneath his graceful one-handed backhand stands a foundation of exceptional fitness.  Yet his lack of overwhelming weapons will prevent him from hitting Dimitrov off the court before the Bulgarian has an opportunity to exhibit his nascent talents.

Almagro vs. Andreev:  Troubling Federer in his Melbourne opener last year, Kirilenko’s boyfriend came within a point of a two-sets-to-one lead on multiple occasions before faltering.  Andreev has honed a grinding style oddly more suited to clay than the style of the Spaniard whom he faces, for Almagro relies much less upon consistency than upon shot-making.  Although the Russian has wandered below the realm of relevance for most of the last few years, he looked crisper than the Spaniard in the first round and holds a slight mental edge.

Wickmayer vs. Sevastova:  Although not quite at her best in the first round, the third-ranked Belgian deserves substantial credit for dispatching the dangerous Groth on Rod Laver Arena.  Renowned not only for athletic ability but for gritty competitiveness, Wickmayer should regularly reach the second week of majors once her game matures.  Defeating both Jankovic and Ivanovic last spring, Sevastova has manufactured a deceptively unimposing style that can frustrate opponents by forcing them to generate additional pace on their groundstrokes.  Can the Latvian lull the Belgian to sleep, or will Wickipedia find the answers?

Nicolas Mahut Nicolas Mahut of France celebrates winning a point during his singles match against Potito Starace of Italy on day seven of the Hopman Cup on January 7, 2011 in Perth, Australia.

Troicki vs. Mahut:  Forced rather unjustly to qualify for this event, the co-hero of 70-68 has won four straight matches as he takes aim at the Sydney finalist.  The hero of the Davis Cup final, Troicki has conquered the uncertainties that beset him throughout most of his career.  Firmly tethered to the baseline, he will hope to unsettle the net-rushing Frenchman with his sparkling array of passing shots, much as he did in Belgrade against Mahut’s compatriot Llodra.  Since their strengths mirror each other, expect a sprightly match high in winners and low in rallies.

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