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Just days removed from the US Open’s climax, several of its notable performers descend upon Europe for a weekend of intriguing Davis Cup semifinals, saturated with intense personalities and stylistic variety. We discuss the key players and matchups in the two ties, unfolding the most plausible narratives that might unfold in Lyon and Belgrade:
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Argentina at France:
Without lanky superstar Del Potro for its entire 2010 campaign, the Argentine team may in fact be stronger in his absence, which cloaks the temperamental Nalbandian in the hero’s mantle. Relishing this role, the infamously “grouchy gaucho” splendidly rose to the occasion during the Davis Cup quarterfinals in Russia, when he defeated Davydenko and Youzhny in a weekend that signaled his summer resurgence. Buttressed by the momentum of his recent exploits on the American hard courts, the former Wimbledon finalist also may suffer from fatigue after the US Open. Although captain Tito Vazquez will want to conserve Nalbandian’s energy for the singles, he will be tempted to enlist his team’s only hard-court threat for doubles if the tie stays tense; thus, a difficult choice may loom on Saturday. Cast as supporting actors, the trio of Monaco, Schwank, and Zeballos has accumulated respectable clay-court credentials but should struggle against the French shotmakers on the fast, indoor surface.
Not usually celebrated for teamwork and Davis Cup camaraderie, les bleus countered their reputation during their stunning whitewash of defending champion Spain in the quarterfinals, to which almost the entire squad contributed. Even Gilles Simon, who didn’t play a live rubber that weekend, enthusiastically supported his compatriots and (tastefully) exhorted the spectators on their behalf. In the often vital doubles rubber, France enjoys a significant edge with former Wimbledon titlists Clement and Llodra. Yet captain Guy Forget has gambled by asking Llodra to play three rubbers, including the potentially decisive fifth rubber against Nalbandian. If Argentina remains in contention until that stage, they would be favored to upset their hosts and advance to their second Davis Cup final in three years. In order to split the first four rubbers, however, the visitors will need either the doubles rubber or a win from their clay specialists over Monfils or Llodra, both of whom have excelled on fast surfaces and recorded impressive results this summer. Buoyed by a vociferous home crowd, Monfils might even defeat Nalbandian on Friday and effectively clinch the tie for France. While the Argentine veteran probably wants a Davis Cup title more than anyone else in Lyon this weekend, the much superior depth and fast-surface talent of the French squad should comprise an insurmountable advantage.
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Czech Republic at Serbia:
Fresh (or not) from his sparkling New York performance, Djokovic opens this tie against a player whom he defeated in two of the last three US Opens. Extending the Serb to the brink of defeat on the first of those occasions, Stepanek offered little resistance in their second meeting there and has faded dramatically this year. Reliant on agility and timing, the idiosyncratic Czech has enjoyed extensive Davis Cup success but will struggle to cope with Djokovic’s superior consistency, versatility, and technique. In the midst of a breakthrough season, Berdych will seek to level the tie against the unpredictable, ever-dangerous Tipsarevic. Probably invigorated by a first-rubber victory, the Belgrade crowd will seek to fluster the Czech, who hasn’t entirely shed his reputation for mental fragility. Although Tipsarevic hopes to recapitulate his scintillating upset over Roddick in New York, Berdych should control most rallies with his superior first-strike weaponry and pin the Serb behind the baseline.
Currently listing the unprepossessing duo of Hajek and Minar as his doubles team, Czech captain Jaroslav Navratil almost certainly will substitute Berdych and Stepanek once Saturday arrives. Superb together in Davis Cup doubles, these singles specialists will confront the slightly odd pairing of Troicki and the perceptibly aging Zimonjic. While the visitors might well win this battle, they probably will lose the war, for both of Serbia’s singles players will rest on Saturday as the Czech singles players continue their exertions without respite. Reprising his Wimbledon semifinal with Berdych in the fourth rubber, Djokovic may face the task not of clinching the tie but of ensuring his nation’s survival into a decisive fifth rubber. Despite his disappointingly passive loss to the world #7 a few months ago, one suspects that the new world #2 would outlast his weary opponent in an encounter of ferocious ball-striking and scintillating shot-making. Ranked only two slots apart, Stepanek and Tipsarevic have split their two previous encounters and share a propensity for alternating the ridiculous with the sublime. When so little separates two opponents in a Davis Cup fifth rubber, though, home-court advantage can play a pivotal role.
Davis Cup Final: France at Serbia
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Over the weekend, we will return with an article on leading Slam performers in 2010. Who were the top five men and top five women at the year’s four most important tournaments? As you will find out, we take an extremely objective approach…
Conventionally considered a second-tier competition populated by mid-level players, the Davis Cup also can be perceived as a theater where those outside the ATP elite can seize a rare chance for immortality. Contrasting with most tournaments in this individual sport, the raucous atmosphere of the national team competition often christens unexpected heroes. Studded with several marquee attractions, though, will the quarterfinals perpetuate or diverge from this pattern?
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France vs. Spain: Surely thrilled not to see the Wizard of Wimbledon and Ruler of Roland Garros (aka Nadal), the French will be disappointed to contest this tie without the services of fast-court specialist Tsonga. Likely to rise to the occasion is Gael Monfils, who delighted his compatriots last year by reaching the final of the Paris Indoors. Yet one never knows precisely what to expect from the mercurial “La Monf,” who exited prematurely at the last two majors while his first-rubber opponent, David Ferrer, excelled even on his worst surface. Surging within a set of the Wimbledon quarterfinals, the second Spanish singles player has thrived in Davis Cup and can be expected to deliver as sturdy an effort as possible despite the fast indoor court. This first rubber must be claimed by the home nation, for the visitors will be heavily favored to win the Verdasco-Llodra clash that follows it. Although the left-handed Llodra did claim the Eastbourne title before testing Roddick at Wimbledon, Fernando will relish the surface speed and enjoys a far more imposing arsenal of weapons than his opponent.
Somewhat unusually in Davis Cup, the doubles match will oppose two teams who often compete together at ATP events (Benneteau/Llodra vs. Verdasco/Lopez) , so one should expect a hotly contested match at the pivot point of the weekend. If France can secure the 2-1 lead, the hosts will head into the reverse singles with a vital boost of confidence, but Spain’s greater experience in crucial Davis Cup ties must provide them with a slight edge. One of the key factors in the tie will be Verdasco’s ability to win three best-of-five matches in three days (albeit one in doubles), a feat that he nearly performed last year against Germany. Potentially tasked with closing out the tie against Monfils in the fourth rubber, the highest-ranked Spaniard outside Nadal generally responds with aplomb to the demands of Davis Cup. In the 2008 final, he scored the clinching victory over Argentina’s Jose Acasuso after a poorly played but suspenseful five-setter. Since Ferrer will struggle to win either of his singles rubbers, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Spanish captain Albert Costa substitute the superior fast-court player Almagro for him in the fifth rubber should it prove decisive. It probably won’t, for the Spanish team’s far superior teamwork and shared experience should prevail over their flaky trans-Pyrenean rivals. Spain, 70-30.
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Serbia vs. Croatia: As volatile as this intra-Balkans rivalry might be at a national level, all of the competition’s participants have developed personal friendships that should defuse the hostility bubbling around them. Fresh (or not fresh) from a Wimbledon semifinal run, Djokovic enters the weekend in his best form of the season, whereas his first-rubber foe Ljubicic has fallen well short of his Indian Wells success thereafter, losing his Wimbledon opener to an anonymous Pole. The Croatian veteran won their last meeting during that magical Indian Wells surge, though, so recent history might play a factor; otherwise, Djokovic has dominated their collisions. During the Davis Cup first round in Belgrade, the Serb embraced this competition’s combative atmosphere and played forceful tennis against American giants Querrey and Isner. After he scores the first point of Serbia, Croatia’s top singles player Marin Cilic should even the tie despite his recently underwhelming form. An easily disheartened, mentally fragile competitor, his opponent Victor Troicki lacks the emotional poise to vanquish a distinctly superior foe before a hostile crowd. Sometimes a little fragile himself, Cilic recorded two sturdy wins in the quarterfinals at home last year, when Croatia hosted the United States.
In the unlikely event that Serbia leads 2-0 after the first day, expect Croatian captain Goran Prpic to substitute Ljubicic and Cilic in the doubles, where Serbia’s doubles star Nenad Zimonjic provides the visitors with a clear advantage. If Prpic sticks with Dodig and Veic, his team likely will be forced to win both of the reverse singles on Sunday, an imposing but not impossible challenge. Serbia will want to finish the job immediately in the fourth rubber, a marquee clash between Djokovic and Cilic. Although the budding Croat sternly tested the world #2 at the 2008 US Open, the Djoker has dominated their fledgling rivalry by winning all four meetings and nine of ten total sets. If the tie comes down to a fifth rubber, Ljubicic would be distinctly favored over Troicki on a fast indoor court, so Serbian captain Bogdan Obradovic might consider substituting Tipsarevic, a sturdier competitor and superior server despite his lower ranking. The efforts of Djokovic and Zimonjic should render such speculation unnecessary, however. Serbia, 60-40.
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Russia vs. Argentina: In this tie that might be labeled “Russia vs. Nalbandian,” the Argentine will be expected to win all three rubbers in order to propel his nation into the semifinals. Relishing heroic roles, he skipped Wimbledon in order to prepare for this weekend, which opens with a stunning matchup against Davydenko, who also recently returned from injury. Although their head-to-head is nearly even, Nalbandian has won three of their four non-clay meetings as well as two of their three Davis Cup clashes. Having developed a highly similar style predicated upon early ball-striking and audacious angles, these bold shotmakers should produce scintillating tennis if both can shed the rust from their prolonged absences. The second rubber should swing definitively towards the hosts, for Leonardo Mayer displays a far less complete game than Mikhail Youzhny, who often has shone in team competition.
Far more adept in singles than doubles, Russia probably will surrender the doubles to Nalbandian and Horacio Zeballos while pinning their hopes upon the reverse singles. If Nalbandian has defeated Davydenko at that stage, one should expect a decisive fifth rubber between the Argentine and Youzhny. But if Davydenko starts the weekend with a victory, he should finish the task in the fourth rubber against Mayer. Even supposing that Nalbandian does win the first rubber and the doubles, he would enter the reverse singles a little weary considering his lack of match play over the last few months. Although he might deplete Youzhny’s limited reserves of patience and extend their encounter to a thrilling conclusion, he might struggle to win three sets from the versatile Russian. Although Nalbandian played the hero expertly in the first round against Sweden, there is significantly more pressure on his shoulders when Argentina faces this much more formidable foe. Russia, 60-40.
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Chile vs. Czech Republic: Who are these people, and what did they do with Gonzalez, Berdych, and Stepanek? While Fernando and Radek battle injuries, Tomas understandably proved reluctant to test his footing on red clay during the transition from grass to hard courts. During the Czech Republic’s slightly surprising run to the 2009 Davis Cup final, Berdych and Stepanek played virtually every rubber including the doubles, which suggests that Czech captain Jaroslav Navratil possesses hardly any other weapons at all. None of the visiting names here ring a bell except doubles specialist Lukas Dlouhy, so the home nation will be favored to prevail in all four singles matches, contested on their favorite surface and before a partisan crowd. Capturing the 2004 Olympic gold medal for Chile, Nicolas Massu has competed impressively at the national level even as his ATP results have sagged. Once a notorious under-performer in Davis Cup, Paul Capdeville has shown signs of dispelling that reputation with a few key recent wins. If the Czechs can somehow find a way to survive this round, of course, they could catapult directly back into contention with Berdych’s return for the semifinals against Serbia or Croatia. Therefore, a literally gritty performance by its B-team could reap greater rewards than simply survival into the next round. But it’s difficult to see the Czech journeymen winning three rubbers from the Chilean veterans on a surface barely familiar to them, thousands of miles from home. Chile, 80-20.
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Over the weekend, we’ll compile the first of next week’s two player profiles, which will feature Wozniacki and Gulbis. They’ll follow the trademark five-strength, five-weakness format with which we have prospered thus far.
We’ve previewed the ATP and WTA cast of characters at Roland Garros rather thoroughly in the previous two posts, so there’s not much to add after the draw was released today. Nevertheless, a few more specific pensées struck us as we perused it. Ten of them, in fact.
1) Nadal has time to find his rhythm: Rafa’s initial cannon fodder, French wildcard Gianni Mina won’t enjoy what surely will be a brief visit to Court Philippe Chatrier. The next two rounds probably feature Zeballos and Hewitt, neither of whom possesses the flat, relentlessly scorching groundstrokes required to trouble Nadal. In the round of 16, the Spaniard could avenge a defeat to Indian Wells nemesis Ljubicic, not a formidable threat on clay; on the other hand, the flamboyant but raw and undisciplined Bellucci might await. Likely to economically dispatch all of these adversaries, Nadal should be able to retain ample energy for the second week–bad news for his opponents.
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2) Henin has virtually no time to find her rhythm: As the defending ATP champion, Federer drew the WTA seeds and botched the business as badly as the last shot that he (didn’t) hit in Madrid. Not only are four of the top five contenders are in the top half of the draw, but three of the top five are in the top quarter. “Merci beaucoup,” says Justine, who confronts the grim prospect of defeating Sharapova, Stosur, Serena, and Jankovic back-to-back-to-back-to-back just in order to reach the final. Barring some unexpected test, a supreme test of the petite Belgian’s durability looms. Give her an extra round of applause if she surmounts all of these obstacles to capture her fifth French Open.
3) The tennis gods are smiling on Venus: It’s good to have a first-round opponent against whom one is 10-0 (Schnyder). It’s better to have two potential quarterfinal opponents who combined to win three total matches in Rome and Madrid (Azarenka, Dementieva). It’s best of all to be the only serious contender in one’s entire half with an open path towards one’s first non-Wimbledon Slam final since Nadal won his first French Open. To be sure, it’s not so good to have the player who defeated you a week ago in the fourth round, but lightning probably won’t strike twice for Rezai. In short, Venus got about as much aid as she could reasonably imagine from the deities of the draw.
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4) The tennis gods are frowning on Verdasco: After dazzling audiences in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and Rome, the streaky Spaniard might have expected to translate that impetus into his second Slam semifinal appearance or even his first Slam final. He must have been demoralized when Rafa was revealed as his quarterfinal opponent. If he’s tired from Nice, moreover, he might struggle a round earlier to subdue Almagro, fresh from an exhilarating surge to the Madrid semifinals.
5) Sharapova was wise to enter Strasbourg: Recovering from an elbow injury, Maria will need the injection of momentum from that tournament in order to threaten Henin at all during their likely third-round encounter. In the probable event that such an assignment proves too strenuous for the Russian, the points accumulated in Strasbourg will help to cushion her ranking against those that she would lose from an early exit, since Sharapova thundered to the quarterfinals last year with a dramatic sequence of four consecutive three-set triumphs.
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6) Gasquet was wise to enter Nice: The French-kissing Frenchman informed everyone who would listen that he had devoted considerable effort to preparing for the clay season…and then preceded to make no impact there whatsoever. This week, though, he has strung together a few wins over rather pedestrian opposition in Nice. Considering Murray’s less than convincing form on clay, Gasquet has a reasonable chance to record his third win in four meetings over the Scot. Should he progress past that initial challenge, his draw could open up immensely; a deep run in Paris would elevate both his ranking and his confidence.
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7) Ivanovic has a chance…: …to reach the second week or even the quarters. Despite her 2009 Australian Open loss to Kleybanova, one would give the Serb a substantial clay edge over the ponderous Russian, who has struggled since winning her maiden title in Kuala Lumpur this February. A third-round clash with Radwanska beckons for Ana, who tested the Pole in Stuttgart despite playing far from her best; again, although by no means an easy assignment, it’s a winnable match if Ivanovic can maintain the level that she attained in Rome. Beset by major physical and mental issues, Safina and Zvonareva represent the leading candidates for the fourth round, and we definitely would feel optimistic regarding her chances against either of those Russians.
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8) Soderling doesn’t have a chance…: …to repeat his 2009 performance. Toting a three-match losing streak into the scene of his historic triumph last year, Soderling not only has no positive impetus upon which to build but also has drawn Federer in the quarterfinals. He might not risk a 13th consecutive loss to the Swiss legend, however, since Gulbis should intersect his path in the fourth round. Even the mind-numbingly steady Montanes might be a bridge too far for the staggering Swede.
9) There will be at least one surprise WTA semifinalist: Bookended by defending champion Kuznetsova and the injured Wozniacki, the third quarter offers fertile terrain for a breakthrough similar to Stosur’s career-changing charge here last year. Judging from recent results, Li Na and Safarova seem the most reasonable candidates; judging by clay expertise, the Italians Schiavone and Pennetta might have a chance, although their 2010 clay campaigns have been inconsistent at best.
10) There will be at least one surprise ATP semifinalist: Scanning the second quarter of the draw, we couldn’t locate a single remotely plausible contender in its ranks. Garcia-Lopez and the aging Robredo are the only real clay experts in this district, for Murray, Tsonga, and Berdych enjoy their best results on faster surfaces. So does Isner, but the American has acquitted himself competently thus far in the gritty grind. No matter who does the dirty work, though, Federer (or perhaps Gulbis) will be waiting to feast in the semifinals.
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Stay tuned for our first daily preview of the action at Roland Garros; “Feet and Feat of Clay” debuts tomorrow with highlight matches, potential upsets, and anything else that might catch our attention!
Doubtless energized by a return to the clay, Nadal pursues a record-breaking sixth consecutive Monte Carlo title and his first title in nearly a year. The draw includes only five of the ATP top ten and lacks not only Federer but past Rafa-killers Del Potro, Davydenko, and Soderling. In the depleted field, can anyone derail Nadal’s return to the winner’s circle? Quarter-by-quarter preview straight ahead…
First quarter: Probably the strongest section of the draw, it features not only top-seeded Djokovic but more than one dangerous dark horse who enjoys this time of year. Novak’s second match probably pits him against newly minted Casablanca champion Wawrinka, who extended the Serb to three sets here last year after downing Federer. The winner of that delicious encounter will be favored to progress past either Robredo or Youzhny, but the Spaniard plays better than his ranking on clay while the Russian has soared to uncharacteristic heights so far in 2010. Don’t completely forget about Houston semifinalist Horacio Zeballos or perennial sleeper David Nalbandian, either. From the outset, the matches in this quarter should provide tense, compelling drama, an arena in which Djokovic typically excels.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Second quarter: As a results of the absences catalogued above, Cilic finds himself in possession of his own quarter…but probably not for long. He looked weary and erratic in the two previous Masters 1000 events, and his movement has looked awkward at best on the clay; we won’t be surprised if a sturdy performance from Andreev topples the Croat in the second round. In fact, the Russian might plow all the way to the quarters in this relatively soft section, where Verdasco likely would await. We’ll never discount Berdych again after his (potential) breakthrough in Miami, but we suspect that a third-round encounter with the Spaniard would reverse their quarterfinal clash two weeks ago. A long time ago, Gasquet burst into the spotlight here by ambushing Federer. Is he ready to surprise some major names? Although Richard has (allegedly) committed additional effort to preparing for the clay, we’re not ready to believe in him again.
Semifinalist: Verdasco
Third quarter: Welcome to the land of opportunity! The two names that bookend this section, Ljubicic and Murray, play much lower than the rankings on the red stuff. Although the Scot did reach the semis here last year, a dogged performance by an underdog probably would extend his slide (and drop him to #5 in the rankings). On second thought, however, very few players in this section could perform that role; Fognini, Melzer, or Mathieu, anyone? We didn’t think so. Scoring a major upset of Djokovic at last year’s French Open, Kohlschreiber could prove a intriguing test in Murray’s opening match. But few players are as dogged–and as lethal on clay–as the Spaniard who pounded Wawrinka into crushed brick at Davis Cup a month ago.
Semifinalist: Ferrer
Fourth quarter: The bull paws the ground here, but will the earth tremble as it has done since 2005? Playing without high expectations during Indian Wells and Miami, Nadal will feel the “privilege” of pressure squarely on his shoulders this week. A loss before the final (arguably, a loss to any player other than Djokovic) would telegraph continued fallibility to his rivals and almost-rivals. Fortunately for him, few truly formidable potholes lurk in his quarter, so he’ll have a chance to settle any nerves against the likes of Argentines Schwank and Monaco. The second-highest seed in the section, Tsonga probably won’t survive until the quarterfinals, since his acrobatic game lacks the patience and consistency required to succeed on clay. Unless the Frenchman delivers an outstanding serving performance, Rafa probably will be charging after Almagro or Ferrero in the quarterfinals. If he’s fully healthy, a loss to either of them on this surface would be virtually inconceivable.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Semifinals: Verdasco hasn’t defeated Djokovic in five meetings since 2006 Hamburg (before Novak was Novak), including a three-set quarterfinal here last year, so we have to stick with the Serb. Best known for his ball-retrieving talents, Ferrer lacks the ferocious ball-striking and relentless aggression (see D for Davydenko and S for Soderling) of the players who typically trouble Nadal.
Djokovic d. Verdasco, Nadal d. Ferrer
Final: Djokovic and Nadal played a thrilling championship match here a year ago, the first of three meetings between them during the clay season. After two strenuous sets, Novak faded in the final set, and his stamina hasn’t improved since then, while his form has distinctly declined. Moreover, it’s likely that he would be more weary than Rafa at that stage because his path is perceptibly more demanding.
Nadal d. Djokovic
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Of course, we’ll preview the actual semifinal and final matchups in much more extensive detail when they take form, but hopefully we did some of our work in advance. In the meantime, we’ll be back shortly with a similar preview of the WTA Charleston event. Enjoy the Mediterranean tennis! 🙂
Sharapovanovic: Your Ticket to Professional Tennis! 
