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Goerges vs. Radwanska: Crushed by Sharapova at the Australian Open, Kerber rebounded to defeat the Russian at the Paris Indoors less than a month later. Her compatriot Goerges will aim to accomplish the same feat after an ignominious loss to Radwanska in Melbourne, where she reached the second week of a major for the first time. Combined with that unfamiliar situation, the canny ball placement and varied shot selection of the Pole exposed the unvarnished quality of the German’s game.
Like Kerber, Goerges probably has learned from her first meeting with an opponent whom few others resemble. As in her semifinal victory over Wozniacki, she can discomfit her rival for the title with high-bouncing groundstrokes that push Radwanska behind the baseline, where her lack of power often translates to a lack of depth on the reply. Following the same model as Kerber and Lisicki last year, Goerges must maximize the advantage that she holds over the world #6 in the point-starting areas of serve and returns. To exploit this advantage, she should return aggressively not only against second serves but against some first serves as well, while she can frustrate Radwanska’s crisp return game by varying the placement on her own serve. In a two-set semifinal that lasted over two hours, Goerges proved that she could surpass Wozniacki’s celebrated focus through multiple-deuce games, which many would have expected the more experienced player to win. That trait will prove essential again when she meets the stingy Radwanska, but she still needs to seize as much control over the rallies as soon as she can, suffocating the Pole before she catches her breath from the first blow.
Even more inferior to Goerges in overall firepower than was Wozniacki, Radwanska poses a sterner challenge in some respects. Whereas the former #1 strikes a steady rhythm from the baseline, the world #6 can vary spins and speeds in ways that disturb the German’s more programmatic style. Recalling her success in the Asian fall season was her relative willingness to take chances and finish points when the opportunity presented itself, especially with her compact backhand. In her victory over Jankovic, she survived a torrid stretch from an opponent who could not maintain the momentum for more than a set. When she plays for the title, Radwanska again will stay positive through such spells from a superior aggressor—an improved ability of hers—and wait alertly for a likely lull. The Pole’s skill at absorbing and redirecting pace, sometimes by striking groundstrokes on one knee, will pose compelling questions for Goerges to answer as balls return with more depth than she might expect. A semifinalist or better at five of her last seven non-majors, Radwanska displayed sparkling form in winning all three of her 2011 finals from elite opponents in Zvonareva and Petkovic. Overall, her 7-2 record in title tilts suggests a player who rises to rather than shrinks from the occasion. But an outstanding performance in the Stuttgart final indicated the same of Goerges.
With a title in Dubai, Radwanska would reach the top 5 for the first time in her career, an accomplishment that looked improbable just a year ago. With a title in Dubai, Goerges would join Kerber as the second German champion of a February Premier event, underscoring the ascent of a nation that now has placed four players in the top 20. Their trans-Oder battle also offers an opportunity for each woman to establish herself as a plausible dark horse when the contenders reconvene in Indian Wells and Miami next month. To increase the intrigue there, one hopes that both say goodbai to the Gulf in style.
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Also on Saturday is a pair of promising men’s semifinals, one in Marseille and one in Memphis.
Tsonga vs. Del Potro: Few leading ATP players obey Murphy’s Law more scrupulously than does Tsonga, at his best when most neglected and at his worst when most expected to excel. Considering his dismal exit in Melbourne, therefore, a strong performance in Marseille should take no observer by surprise. Nor should it surprise considering his pattern of shining under the lights in his home country, a thread that connects previous titles here, in Metz, and at the Paris Indoors, where he reached a second final as well. Eight of Tsonga’s thirteen finals have occurred on indoor hard courts, the surface most suited to his style of spontaneous combustion. As he seeks another indoor final, the Frenchman will want to impose his explosive, relentlessly athletic tempo upon a more leisurely Argentine opponent. Whereas Tsonga struts around the court with barely contained energy between points, Del Potro ambles with a mellow ease dissonant from his equally fierce weaponry. Winning most of his points from the baseline, he likely will seek to uncover the inconsistency in his opponent’s backhand, a shot neutral at most under pressure. Neither man dazzled for extended stretches during quarterfinal victories that became more eventful than necessary. After Tsonga needed to scramble from falling behind an early break to the anonymous Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Del Potro might well have lost both sets to Gasquet if not for the latter’s reliable unreliability in key moments. Sinking to the level of their inferior competition, neither new member of the 200-win club can afford to leave anything behind on Saturday. With all due respect to Tipsarevic and Llodra, this match feels like a de facto final.
Melzer vs. Stepanek: Living dangerously throughout his week in Memphis, the Austrian lefty has survived not one but two third-set tiebreaks. But Melzer always has lived on the edge, striking his groundstrokes with minimal net clearance and hurtling towards the net at the slightest invitation. Both there and at the baseline, his keen reflexes earned him an upset over the top-seeded Isner in the quarterfinal. Winning an astonishing 33% of the points on the American giant’s first serve, Melzer twice recovered from a minibreak in the tiebreak and scorched the opposite baseline with a pinpoint return on match point. As sizzling as he looked then, he can turn frigid without warning, so many of his matches unfold in the fashion of a rollercoaster. Ever ready to ride on a rollercoaster is his playful semifinal opponent, Stepanek, a fellow veteran whose vitality never seems to dwindle with age. A former champion in San Jose and finalist in Memphis, the 33-year-old Czech historically has sparkled in the United States, where his quirkiness perhaps finds a more appreciative audience than in most venues. Like Melzer, Stepanek relishes opportunities to reach the forecourt and darts around the court to create clever angles. For what they lack in discipline and raw power, these two wily veterans compensate in entertainment and eccentricity.
Barely two months ago, Spain celebrated the latest title captured by its Davis Cup dynasty. But now the greatest power of the past decade must start to defend its crown once more. While their path does not look steep, other contending nations eye more imposing challenges to their hopes.
Spain vs. Kazakhstan: In its first year of World Group experience, the Kazakhs burst onto this grand stage by ambushing the Berdych-led Czech squad in a victory of David over Goliath. When David traveled to Argentine clay, though, their discomfort on the surface led to an emphatic shutout. Once again mired in clay, they face the nation most renowned for its success on the terre battue. But most of that success came from two players absent from Spain’s B-level squad in Oviedo, Nadal and Ferrer. As Spain enters an era of Davis Cup without its leading stars, the defending champions rely on the fading Ferrero and the enigmatic Almagro, together with the unremarkable Granollers and the second-tier doubles specialist Marc Lopez. Considering the quality of their competition and home-court advantage, Spain should advance routinely even with this relatively modest quartet. This easy draw provides a chance for the team’s comprehensive remodeling to coalesce before meeting stiffer resistance. ESP in 3
Austria vs. Russia: Not especially intriguing at first glance, this tie features no player in the top 30. Several curious subtexts lurk beneath its apparent mediocrity, however, including the narrative of Alex Bogomolov’s debut in Russian colors after controversially spurning the United States. The most reliable member of either squad in Cup action, Youzhny arrives with his spirits soaring from a Zagreb title and owns a 4-2 advantage over Austrian #1 Melzer. Likely to appear if needed in Sunday’s reverse singles is the Austrian resident Davydenko, whose aggressive ball-striking suits the indoor hard courts better than Bogomolov’s counterpunching style. Bereft of imposing singles #2s, the hosts will lean heavily on Melzer to participate in winning three rubbers, for they have little hope of survival if the tie hinges upon the 127th-ranked Haider-Maurer. While the streaky Austrian #1 could ride his lefty net-rushing to a heroic feat, he has won consecutive main-draw matches only once since last July. His best tennis almost certainly lies behind this 30-year-old Wimbledon doubles champion. RUS in 5
Canada vs. France: Like the Austrians, the Canadians pin their ambitions upon a single potential hero in Milos Raonic. Although Vasek Pospisil and Frank Dancevic have excelled on home soil before, one would not fancy their chances to win two singles rubbers from Tsonga and Monfils, even with the latter perhaps not fully fit. In the doubles, Canada might combine Dancevic’s net skills with the vast doubles expertise of Daniel Nestor, only a little less effective with age. Nevertheless, Franch also will bring a talented doubles pairing in Benneteau and Llodra, who have won titles together before and might out-serve the Canadians on these fast courts. Stirring internal Canadian controversy before the tie was fiercely patriotic advertising by Tennis Canada that irritated the country’s French-speaking citizens. The weekend’s action will unfold far from Quebec in the British Canadian city of Vancouver, though, notorious for fanaticism in other sports. Famously fallible throughout their history, the French Davis Cup team must ignore the distractions to showcase their more versatile talent. Outside the serve, Tsonga and Monfils have far more weapons than Raonic, who might upset one of them but seems unlikely to topple both without their assistance. Three best-of-five victories on three straight days represents a towering task for the towering Canadian. FRA in 4
Switzerland vs. USA: Whereas the previous two ties look more interesting upon further inspection than at first glance, this tie looks more interesting at first glance than upon further inspection. On the indoor clay in Fribourg, Federer and Wawrinka should tie knots around the one-dimensional American servers. Unimpressive at the Australian Open, neither Fish nor Isner will bring the level of self-belief necessary to overcome the Swiss master, although Isner did win two sets from Nadal at Roland Garros. A stronger competitor than formerly (except against Federer), Wawrinka still struggles with maintaining a positive attitude under pressure sometimes. One wonders a little how he will respond to the challenge of blunting the American serves under the gaze of his expectant compatriots. So far superior are the Swiss singles players on clay, however, that they could afford to burn understudies Chiudinelli and Lammer on the doubles while relying on winning three of four singles rubbers. (Thus far, however, they have slotted Federer and Wawrinka into that rubber as well.) Paired with Ryan Harrison rather than former partner Isner, Mike Bryan should spare the visitors from a shutout before they drift down to the playoff round once more. In a minor footnote, Harrison should benefit from the experience of playing a visiting Davis Cup tie as his maturation process continues. SUI in 4
Czech Republic vs. Italy: Surely seething to avenge their first-round loss last year, the former Davis Cup finalists probably can expect only one or two more seasons from their reliable duo of Berdych and Stepanek. A two-man team with remarkable success in doubles together, they will host a clay-loving quartet of Italians on fast indoor courts where their superior serves and aggressive tactics should make spaghetti out of Starace et al. After extending Nadal to four tight sets in an Australian Open quarterfinal, Berdych won the Montpellier title last week and has played more consistently impressive tennis over the last few months thane he generally does. Not to be outdone by his countryman, Stepanek won the Australian Open doubles crown with Leander Paes in a commendable late-career highlight. Boosted by their individual momentum, they should prove once again that divergent playing styles and divergent personalities can fuse in explosively effective fashion. Like the Swiss, the Czechs probably can afford to concede the doubles and rest their stars for the singles. CZE in 4
Serbia vs. Sweden: Neither of their nation’s #1s, Djokovic and Soderling, will play a role in this starless Belgrade weekend. So sanguine was Serbian captain Bogdan Obradovic about his team’s chances that he encouraged the five-time major champion to focus upon preparing for the majors and Olympics. All the same, two top-25 singles threats in Tipsarevic and Troicki add to doubles veteran Zimonjic in comprising a balanced squad that always shines most under Serbian skies (or roofs, in this case). Across the net stands no Swede in the top 250 of the ATP singles rankings, although Robin Lindstedt should duel intriguingly with Zimonjic in the doubles rubber. But otherwise we expect minimal suspense from the greatest mismatch of the weekend. SRB in 3
Japan vs. Croatia: A mismatch in height alone, this tie offers a second straight weekend of tennis in the Bourbon Beans Dome. Partnering Kimiko Date-Krumm in mixed doubles at the Australian Open, Nishikori will aim to emulate that legend’s success in Fed Cup against another Balkans team. Unexpectedly reaching the singles quarterfinals in Melbourne, the Japanese #1 should relish the rare opportunity to play before his home fans—at least more than the opportunity to blunt Karlovic’s serving power. The doubles looks even more uncertain than the singles rubbers, although perhaps the Croat’s towering serve will prove decisive by earning ample free points. In the first meeting between these nations, the straightforward power and forward movement of the visitors will contrast with the steady baseline resilience of the home squad. While the indoor hard court would seem to tilt towards Croatia, Nishikori and his compatriots will not surrender without a fierce struggle. CRO in 5
Germany vs. Argentina: Rebounding from a valiant but doomed effort against a Nadal-led Spain in last year’s final, the perennial bridesmaids of Davis Cup begin yet another Sisyphean quest towards its elusive summit. Curiously without their flagship Del Potro, a key factor in their semifinal victory over Serbia in 2011, Argentina will rely one more time upon Cup stalwart Nalbandian against a German team lacking its most dangerous player in Kohlschreiber. Considering the characteristics of Mayer, Petzschner, and Haas, one must query the host country’s decision to put Monaco and Chela on their favored red clay. Fast-court players who prefer short points, the Germans would seem at a disadvantage against the Argentine clay specialists. Also notable is the age of the participants, of whom the youngest (Monaco) will turn 28 next month. Under the rigors of the best-of-five format on a slow court, fatigue and injury may play a role for some of these veterans. As with Japan vs. Croatia, either team could win any of the rubbers. But only one of these players, Nalbandian has compiled a history of Davis Cup heroics, and he should lift his nation again in a tie that looks less formidable than it did when the draw first appeared. ARG in 5
The quietest month on the calendar between the Australian Open and the US Open, February showcases several indoor tournaments as well as the opening rounds of national team competition. We review the best and worst of what we watched in the first week at venues around the world.
Ad-in:
National #2s: Overshadowed at the outset by higher-ranked compatriots such as Kvitova, Sharapova, and Jankovic, several of the second-ranked women on Fed Cup teams played pivotal roles in their team’s success. While most of the attention in Moscow swirled around Sharapova, Kuznetsova delivered two singles victories to continue her excellence under national colors. Not renowned for valiant responses to pressure in ordinary circumstances, she clinched yet another tie with a rollercoaster three-set victory over a plucky opponent with nothing to lose. When Jankovic vanished after a first-rubber victory, as did Sharapova, Bojana Jovanovski became the heroine of Serbia’s road victory over Belgium. The promising teenager rebounded from a Saturday loss to Wickmayer and fueled her nation’s comeback from a 1-2 deficit by winning in both singles and doubles on Sunday. Stagnant over the last several months in individual competition, perhaps she can build from that success to reinvigorate her fortunes.
Nor should one neglect the effort of Hantuchova in World Group II, opening and closing a dangerous tie against France with victories. Similar to Kuznetsova in her unsteadiness at crucial moments, the elegant Slovak found the courage to survive a 16-game final set in the first rubber, when the tie still hung in the balance. Although Kvitova provided the principal heroics for the Czechs (see below), Iveta Benesova mastered the more talented Lisicki to strip the suspense almost immediately from what had seemed an intriguing tie. Even in the presence of their more notable peers, therefore, the performance of these #2s proved the importance of depth in team competition.
Berdych: Having waited two and a half years between his two previous titles, the world #7 ensured that no such drought would separate his next two. Following swiftly upon his Beijing title last fall, another minor title at Montpellier extended his momentum from a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open. As confident and authoritative as he looked in Melbourne, Berdych comfortably shouldered the burden of the top seed at a small event and withstood a second-set surge by Monfils in the final. While his programmatic style translates especially well to the artificial conditions under a roof, he should bring confidence to the North American hard courts in March. A runner-up at Miami two years ago, Berdych should aim to surpass the flagging Tsonga as the leading threat to the top four.
French men: In the absence of the aforementioned Tsonga, his countrymen still flew the French flag with panache under the roof of Montpellier. Monfils may have watched his finals record dwindle to 4-13, but he edged within a set of defending a title for the first time in his career. Sandwiched around his dismal exit from Melbourne are runner-up trophies at his other tournaments. In an all-French semifinal that must have delighted the audience, Simon fell one point short of snatching his countryman’s berth in the final but displayed the competitive resilience associated with him. To be sure, one should not overstate success at a tournament so minor and so friendly to native talent, where the French held three of the top four seeds and 12 of the 28 total slots in the main draw. But les bleus historically have labored under a reputation for imploding on home soil, and the weeks enjoyed by these two Frenchmen combined with the recent success of Tsonga and Monfils at the Paris Indoors to undermine that theory.
Youzhny: Now outside the top 30, this former resident of the top 10 had not even reached a final since the start of 2010. Exploiting the inexperience of first-time finalist Lukas Lacko, Youzhny won his fifth indoor title under the Zagreb roof while showcasing his elegant backhand and effortless versatility. Although very Russian in personality, his game almost looks French with its free-flowing grace from all corners of the court. Considering his volatile emotions, a three-set victory over Karlovic during which he never broke serve represented the most impressive accomplishment from an otherwise smooth passage through the draw. Added to the Fed Cup team’s triumph, Youzhny’s title offered multiple causes for celebration in Russia, whose women long have dwarfed the men in tennis talent. With Davis Cup on the horizon, Shamil Tarpischev must look forward to welcoming this experienced veteran and stalwart patriot at one of his more optimistic moments in recent years.
Kvitova: Although she lost the first set to lower-ranked players in each of her Fed Cup rubbers, the world #2 showed commendable determination in eking out victories against talented opponents in hostile territory. Extended to eighteen games in the third set against Goerges, she marshaled sufficient energy to outlast inspired resistance from Lisicki on Sunday. Uncharacteristically fragile late in the third set of the Australian Open semifinal, she displayed a tenacity more worthy of her status on an occasion not much less intense in pressure.
Deuce:
Germans: In all of the first three singles rubbers, they won the first set. In all three rubbers, they lost the next two sets. As the momentum slid away from them again and again, Lisicki and Goerges must have sensed the opportunity slipping through their fingers. But they should take comfort from their ability to threaten the heavily favored Kvitova in a tie much more competitive than the scoreline showed. When Petkovic returns, this team will have the depth to become a Fed Cup powerhouse.
Schiavone: Unaccountably ghastly on Saturday, she regrouped to win her second rubber on Sunday but only after a rollercoaster three-setter, a startling result on her beloved clay against a Ukrainian team that struggles on the surface. One typically numbers Schiavone among the lionesses of Fed Cup, but surprisingly she has won only 22 of 39 singles rubbers. After reaching the Brisbane semifinal to start 2012, she has sputtered in the last few weeks. That said, Schiavone delivered a key win for her country when the situation absolutely demanded, and she showed the poise of a veteran in regrouping from Saturday’s debacle with competitive willpower undimmed.
Ad-out:
South American clay: If these tournaments wish to attract players more notable than Spanish clay specialists, they must consider changing to the hard courts where almost any sensible player would spend their time between the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Such a change might imperil their attractiveness for players like Ferrer and Almagro, who can inflate their rankings by gorging on cheap rankings points up and down the continent. (Appearance money and distance from players’ bases in North America and Europe also play a role, of course.) For now, they represent a curious anomaly on the calendar and a reminder of the region’s remoteness from relevance.
Nicolas Escude: With his team’s survival at stake, the French captain bizarrely selected the Fed Cup-allergic Cornet to face Hantuchova, who has enjoyed a strong start to 2012. To no surprise, the feckless Frenchwoman sank to 2-12 in Fed Cup action, including 1-8 in singles. Never should Escude have entrusted her with a live rubber, much less a must-win live rubber, and least of all after Razzano (the player for whom she substituted) had defeated Slovakian #1 Cibulkova routinely on Saturday. As France faces possible relegation to zonal play, the French Tennis Federation should have little trouble identifying a key architect of their humiliation.
Perhaps with an eye to the looming Olympics, many of the top women have “made themselves available” for Fed Cup duty as required for participation in the Summer Games. Rather than looking so far ahead, though, we discuss the eight ties in this weekend’s “Winter Games.”
Russia vs. Spain: A year ago, Sharapova followed a disappointing performance at the Australian Open with a Fed Cup defeat in Moscow. After reaching the Melbourne final this year, she will hope to carry that momentum into another home tie and an opening rubber against the 77th-ranked Soler Espinosa. While Sharapova generally has fizzled on Russian soil, the Spaniard has won just four WTA main-draw matches since the start of 2011. More problematic for the home squad is the second rubber between Kuznetsova and Suarez Navarro, who has defeated the Russian on hard courts and impressed in a three-set loss to Kvitova at the Australian Open. If the visitors can reach Sunday with a 1-1 tie, the pressure might accumulate on their heavily favored opponents. But Russia rallied from a 0-2 deficit in the same round last year, suggesting that they will respond courageously to adversity. Likely to win at least three of four singles rubbers, their far superior firepower should render the doubles rubber irrelevant.
Belgium vs. Serbia: The only top-20 player on either squad, Jankovic likely holds the keys to Serbia’s success but may find her fitness tested by the prospect of playing three rubbers. The former #1 has recorded notable exploits in team competition while compiling a 24-7 record in singles matches, and teammate Bojana Jovanovski has produced tennis much better than her current sub-100 ranking. Without Clijsters, Belgium rests its hopes on Yanina Wickmayer, who began 2010 and 2011 in impressive fashion before fading later in those seasons. Defeated by a qualifier in the Hobart final, she continues to struggle with consistency and may struggle with the unfamiliar role of spearheading this team. Like Jankovic, she probably will play three rubbers if necessary on a team with no other member in the top 150. Never have the two #1s met on an indoor hard court, a surface that should benefit the more aggressive Wickmayer. If the tie reaches the doubles, Jankovic’s superior grittiness should prevail.
Italy vs. Ukraine: Probably the least intriguing tie of the weekend is this pairing in which one team’s lowest-ranked player stands more than 50 notches higher than the other team’s highest-ranked player. A quarterfinalist at the Australian Open, Errani replaces the higher-ranked Pennetta, hampered by injury during January. Notable mostly for accomplishments on hard courts, Ukraine should count itself lucky to win any of the rubbers, for a daunting challenge awaits in the doubles against Australian Open doubles finalists Errani and Vinci. Although Schiavone fell early in her last two tournaments, a return to Italian soil should reinvigorate the 30-year-old veteran, especially when facing two women who have combined to win one main-draw match this year.
Germany vs. Czech Republic: In probably the most intriguing tie of the weekend, the 2011 champions open their title defense against the potent serving of Lisicki and Goerges. Solid but not spectacular in Melbourne, world #2 Kvitova delivered crucial victories for the Czech Republic in both the semifinal and final. Despite the victories that each German recorded against her in 2009 and 2010, the home team’s strongest hope may lie in preying upon her teammate Benesova and extending the tie to the doubles. Like Belgium, Germany enters the weekend without its leading singles player in Petkovic, so Lisicki and Goerges must curb their characteristic unpredictability and discipline themselves against playing to the level of the competition. Since both Germans and Benesova reached the second week of the Australian Open, one should expect an extremely high level of tennis in every singles rubber. Even if the tie reaches the doubles, though, the pairing of Hradecka and Zahlavova Strycova would summon greater experience and doubles expertise than any duo that the hosts could assemble. With a surface tailored to the strengths of both squads and a clash between two neighboring countries, this tie should produce not only explosive serves but the type of volatile atmosphere on which Fed Cup thrives.
World Group II:
USA vs. Belarus: No fewer than three #1s have traveled to the prosaic environs of Worcester, Massachusetts for the mere opportunity to contest the World Group next year. Those who wished to see Serena face one of the younger generation’s rising stars in Melbourne will find some consolation for January disappointment when she meets the newly top-ranked Azarenka on Sunday. Since the hosts possess the only doubles specialist on either team in Liezel Huber, the visitors would prefer to clinch the tie before that rubber. That objective would require Azarenka to defeat Serena and Belarussian #2 Govortsova to defeat promising American Christina McHale. Winless in three Fed Cup matches, McHale nevertheless has acquitted herself impressively on home soil with victories over Wozniacki, Bartoli, and Kuznetsova among others. Moreover, Azarenka may lack the willpower to overcome Serena if she suffers a predictable hangover from winning her first major title.
Japan vs. Slovenia: The only top-50 player on either team, Polona Hercog aims to lift Slovenia back into relevance during the post-Srebotnik era. Having just turned 21, she already has played sixteen Fed Cup rubbers and can wield significantly more offense than anyone on the Japanese squad. Two decades older than Hercog, Kimiko Date-Krumm has accomplished little of note over the past year, but she may draw confidence from her memories of a career-defining victory over Graf in this competition. Japanese #1 Ayumi Morita exited in the first round of the Australian Open and has lost her first match at eight of her last ten WTA tournaments. But the only two events in that span where she survived her opener happened on home soil. Update: Date-Krumm rallied from a one-set deficit to win the first rubber from Hercog, suggesting that one shouldn’t underestimate those memories–or home-court advantage.
Slovak Republic vs. France: During this weekend last year, an underpowered French squad thrust the Russian juggernaut to the brink of defeat in Moscow, so underestimate les bleues at your peril. That said, their collapse thereafter confirmed stereotypes of Nicolas Escude’s squad as mentally fragile, especially when situated in a winning position. Outgunned by the Slovakian duo of Hantuchova and Cibulkova, the visitors still face a challenge less daunting than Sharapova/Kuznetsova in 2011. Central to their initial success that weekend was a sturdy performance by Razzano, who has compiled a 7-3 singles record under her nation’s colors, and the location of the tie outside France, again a factor in their favor here. Nevertheless, the two leading Slovakians have edged through several tense ties together among their 71 combined Fed Cup rubbers, experience that infuses them with the sense of shared purpose and team spirit absent from their opponents.
Switzerland vs. Australia: On paper, this matchup looks as ludicrously lopsided as Italy vs. Ukraine. The lowest-ranked Australian, Casey Dellacqua, stands higher than Swiss #1 Stefanie Voegele. (How soon can Federer’s daughters start wielding a racket?) But Stosur has looked wretched while losing three of her first four 2012 matches, and Aussie #2 Gajdosova also exited Melbourne in the first round amidst a ghastly avalanche of errors. Both struggle under the weight of expectations thrust upon them by this proud tennis nation, especially the Slovakian-born Gajdosova. Adding depth to this potentially dysfunctional squad is Jelena Dokic, rarely free from controversy. If the Aussies simply focus on fundamentals and keep their wits about them, their overwhelming advantage in talent should propel them forward. Like the French, they may benefit from playing outside their nation, but somehow one senses that this weekend might unfold in a manner more interesting than expected.
Within minutes of Djokovic’s final forehand, viewers around the world began to wonder whether the epic that we had witnessed had become the new “greatest match ever,” thrusting aside the Federer-Nadal final at Wimbledon in 2008. We view each match through eight separate lenses to consider whether the older match retains its crown. Take note, though, that not all carry equal weight.
Time: The most obvious measure of comparison, time represents the least significant when one considers the numerous five-set exercises in boredom that populate the early rounds of majors. And few would argue that Isner-Mahut, despite its gluttonous excess, ranks as the best match of all time. All the same, the 65 additional minutes of the Melbourne final impressed not in themselves but in the ability of both players to continue displaying their fearless, physical brand of tennis long after anyone had thought possible. The less brutal points played for a shorter time at Wimbledon four years ago never tested the endurance of both adversaries to that extent, while two rain delays offered a welcome respite in that roofless arena. Advantage, Rafole
Place: Unique in the reverent hush of its pristine lawn, the Centre Court at Wimbledon towers above all of the world’s other tennis venues, no matter how much larger or newer. When one watches a final there, the specter of history hovers portentously and sometimes oppressively above the players. Termed the Happy Slam by Federer, who won it four times, the Australian Open does not summon the same majestic aura. Even when filled to capacity under the lights, it remains a tournament rather than a temple. Advantage, Fedal
Magnitude: Just two majors away from equaling Sampras, Federer also strode onto Centre Court in 2008 one victory from a record-setting sixth consecutive Wimbledon title. Across the net, Nadal sought to cast aside the label of clay-court specialist by conquering a major other than Roland Garros for the first time. Not since Manolo Santana had one of his countrymen won Wimbledon, and members of the Spanish royal family watched their champion. By contrast, Djokovic’s fifth major title represented no historic moment in itself but merely the next chapter in his mounting dominance. An eleventh major title would have tied Nadal with Rod Laver on the all-time list but have improved his status as potential GOAT contender only incrementally. Advantage, Fedal
Context: Framed within their rivalry, the conclusion of the Wimbledon trilogy between Federer and Nadal marked a crossroads in their rivalry. On one hand, Roger had left Rafa in tears a year before when he won another classic five-setter in Part II of the trilogy. On the other hand, Nadal had routed the Swiss superstar barely a month earlier in the Roland Garros final, losing just four games and triggering murmurs that he had eclipsed Federer for good. (He had, as it turned out, but we wouldn’t know until they met in Melbourne two majors later.) As Djokovic and Nadal braced for their thirtieth meeting, no sense of a crossroads loomed. Having won their last six meetings, including consecutive major finals, the Serb stood higher in the rankings and enjoyed the surface advantage. On the eve of the final, Nadal’s only edge seemed to come from Djokovic’s depleted fitness after a five-set semifinal, a tenuous thread on which to hang one’s hopes. Advantage, Fedal
Complexity: After a grinding, 80-minute first set tilted in Nadal’s favor, Djokovic seemed in serious trouble. Then, he charged to an early lead in the second set and generally held that momentum until midway through the fourth set. Almost with an air of inevitability approached the finish line as the second seed served at triple break point in the eighth game of the fourth set, defeat lurking five points away. With several impressive serves, Nadal appeared to save himself—until he fell behind 5-3 in the tiebreak. Dodging that bullet as well, he seized all of the momentum from his rival and never looked back until he led 4-2, 30-15 in the final set. Six points from defeat himself now, Djokovic exploited an uncharacteristic backhand error to reverse the narrative one more time. Much more straightforward was the narrative of the Wimbledon final, which divided neatly into halves. Nadal won the first two sets rather routinely and held triple break in the seventh game of the third set, at which point Federer mounted a comeback that brought him within five points of the title before Rafa narrowly survived the deluge of serves and forehands. To be sure, the Swiss did save a match point on Nadal’s serve in the fourth-set tiebreak, but the broader narrative remained relatively simple. Advantage, Rafole
Drama: Falling just short of completion, Federer’s accelerating comeback from a seemingly insurmountable deficit captured the imagination as an aging lion mustering one last effort to defend his territory from a younger rival. Moreover, each of the last three sets reached 6-6 and hinged upon a handful of points; few situations can trump the drama of an advantage set to decide a major final. Without that clash of generations or unified narrative, the Melbourne final still posed the question of whether Nadal could solve the man who had harried him around the globe last year. The last two sets ended by the narrowest of margins, like the Wimbledon final, and the player who won the fourth-set tiebreak similarly rallied from a 5-3 deficit. Moreover, the fifth set compensated for its fewer games with the internal plot twist provided by the exchange of breaks near its midpoint. Deuce
Entertainment: For sheer visual pleasure, little could trump the spectacle of the top two players in the world hurling 100-mph thunderbolts at each other from behind the baseline. Nor was the Melbourne final oriented entirely around such savage groundstrokes, for both men covered the court expertly to collaborate on repeated rallies of 20 shots or more. By those breathtaking standards, the Wimbledon final looks austere and restrained in retrospect. The older match featured clinical precision in its serves, approach shots, and passing shots, but it showcased many fewer lung-burning exchanges and blinding blasts flung towards corners with spine-tingling courage. Advantage, Rafole
Climax: In this department, the Melbourne final clearly surpassed its predecessor. After losing his serve at 7-7 in the fifth set with a forehand unforced error, Federer tapped another forehand meekly into the net to end the Wimbledon epic with abrupt anticlimax. While a feeble netted backhand by Nadal handed Djokovic the decisive break, the final game offered scintillating drama. Trailing 30-0, Rafa later reached break point with a penetrating backhand, only to see the Serb erase it with an explosive two-hander of his own. After doing all that he could to invoke divine aid, Djokovic then delivered an outstanding first serve on championship point, followed by a decisive inside-out forehand winner. That authoritative point ended this match in a manner worthy of its magnificence. Advantage, Rafole
Verdict: A thrilling epic in its own right, Rafole remained almost entirely a story of two players on one court during one, seemingly endless night. On the other hand, Fedal sprawled beyond those confines to assert its place in the sport’s history even as we watched, which earns it a stature still unsurpassed.